Abstract
Historic events and prior research confirm that fire following earthquake (FFE) can cause major social and economic losses in a community. FFE is influenced by a number of interacting factors. This paper identifies 27 cause factors (CFs) for FFE through data mining method and literature review. The CFs are grouped into four clusters: management, source of ignition, environmental factors, and earthquake hazard. Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) is used to construct the hierarchy structure of the CFs and analyze their internal relationships. As a result, a five-level ISM is built, in which, the direct, indirect, and source of CFs are identified. Subsequently, MICMAC (cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification) analysis is completed to partition the CFs into four quadrants (independent, linkage, autonomous, and dependent) based on their effect index and dependence index, and evaluate the degree of relationship between the CFs. The findings show that the causal influence network with 27 CFs has a strong hierarchy, with the CFs propagating unidirectionally from the bottom layer to the top layer. The CFs in the ignition category are more dependent and influenced by other categories as expected. Investing in a resilient electric network, enhancing design standard of buildings and appropriate retrofitting, and optimizing fire prevention strategies considering seasonal hazards could reduce the risk of FFE in a community. The results of this study provide insight into the interrelationships between the CFs for FFE and can be used to identify effective risk reduction strategies and improve fire safety.
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The study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71273283), Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province (2021JJ30861) and China Scholarship Council (201806370055). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the sponsor.
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Both authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by [Zheng He] and [Negar Elhami Khorasani]. The first draft of the manuscript was written by [Zheng He]. The review and editing were conducted by [Negar Elhami Khorasani]. Both authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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He, Z., Elhami Khorasani, N. Identification and hierarchical structure of cause factors for fire following earthquake using data mining and interpretive structural modeling. Nat Hazards 112, 947–976 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05214-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05214-0