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Multicriterial method of AHP analysis for the identification of coastal vulnerability regarding the rise of sea level: case study in Ilha Grande Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

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Abstract

Current climate changes have several consequences, such as rising sea levels. Today, the identification of coastal vulnerabilities worldwide is necessary to prevent impacts and drive action. The aim of the work was to estimate the vulnerable areas from a total rate of increase in sea level of 2.8 m and to identify the impacts of greater magnitude through the use of hierarchical analysis. The analytic hierarchy process method was used to list the most serious impacts. In addition, the simulation of the most vulnerable sites was carried out in a GIS environment using geoprocessing and a digital terrain model for the area of study. The Ilha Grande Bay region (southeastern Brazil) was chosen as a test area due to its economic, tourist and environmental importance. The main impacts are floods, coastal erosion and loss of coastal ecosystems. The most vulnerable areas are characterized as flat with low slopes, usually coastal plains occupied by environmental protection areas, urban centers and historical centers. The methodology proved to be effective in assessing and forecasting vulnerable areas and can be applied to several types of coastal areas.

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  1. Postrgraduate Program in Marine Biology and Coastal Environments at Universidade Federal Fluminense, Instituto de Biologia Outeiro de São João Batista, Center, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, 24020-971, Brazil

    Julia Caon Araujo & Fabio Ferreira Dias

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  1. Julia Caon Araujo
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  2. Fabio Ferreira Dias
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Julia Caon Araujo and Fabio Ferreira Dias. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Julia Caon Araujo and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. This article is part of the dissertation of the first author, Julia Caon Araujo, whose advisor was Professor Fabio Ferreira Dias.

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Table 4 Comparison matrix
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Table 5 Normalization of the results
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Araujo, J.C., Dias, F.F. Multicriterial method of AHP analysis for the identification of coastal vulnerability regarding the rise of sea level: case study in Ilha Grande Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Nat Hazards 107, 53–72 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04573-4

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