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Investigating relationship between drought severity in Botswana and ENSO

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Abstract

Influences of El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) on weather systems have increased the frequency and amplitude of extreme events over the last century. This even continues to exacerbate the already warming earth, with 2014–2016 which coincided with the strongest El Niño years observed as the warmest period in recent past. This study presents an approach of characterizing droughts at various timescales and establishes teleconnections between ENSO and drought severity in Botswana. The study uses Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) at timescales of 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 month to characterize droughts and Pearson’s correlations to study the teleconnections between SPEIs and ENSO. Results from the study reveal that extreme droughts are a rare occurrence in Botswana though it is more prone to moderate droughts at 12 month SPEI with a probability of 19% in the north. The highest severe drought probability was 7% recorded in the east. Linear trends indicate increasing dryness of around 0.8% per decade. These results have demonstrated that warm sea surface temperatures combined with negative Southern Oscillation Index correspond to persistent negative SPEI values and thus are likely to result in dry conditions. Significant correlations were observed in the mid austral summer in December and January. Due to this relationship, the drought early warning systems could use ENSO as one of the instruments for predicting drought over the study area and hence in its management.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank the Mobility for Engineering Graduates in Africa (METEGA) for funding this study. We also pass our gratitude to the editor and anonymous reviewers for their insights in an effort to improve the quality of the manuscript. The Department of Meteorological services (DMS) of Botswana provided the climatological data used in this study for this we are grateful.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biosystems Engineering, Gulu University, P.O Box 166, Gulu, Uganda

    Jimmy Byakatonda

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Botswana, P/Bag 0061, Gaborone, Botswana

    B. P. Parida

  3. Department of Environmental Science, University of Botswana, P/Bag 00704, Gaborone, Botswana

    Ditiro B. Moalafhi, Piet K. Kenabatho & David Lesolle

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  1. Jimmy Byakatonda
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  2. B. P. Parida
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Correspondence to Jimmy Byakatonda.

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Byakatonda, J., Parida, B.P., Moalafhi, D.B. et al. Investigating relationship between drought severity in Botswana and ENSO. Nat Hazards 100, 255–278 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03810-1

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