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Inter-comparison of model, satellite and in situ tropical cyclone heat potential in the North Indian Ocean

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Abstract

The North Indian Ocean (NIO) experiences frequent tropical cyclones (TCs). TC heat potential (TCHP) is a major ocean parameter responsible for TC genesis and intensification changes. In this study, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (INCOIS-GODAS) model and satellite-derived TCHP data from National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are validated against TCHP from in situ profiles in the NIO during the period 2011–2013 for buoys and during 2005–2015 for Argo data. Data from eight moored buoys (6 in Bay of Bengal and 2 in Arabian Sea) under the Ocean Moored Buoy Network are used. Comparison of model and in situ TCHP yields correlation coefficients (root-mean-square errors in kJ/cm2) of 0.74 (17.75), 0.59 (15.34), 0.70 (17.68), 0.60 (22.24), 0.57 (19.52), 0.73 (17.88) and 0.77 (39.17) at buoy locations BD08, BD09, BD10, BD11, BD13, AD06 and AD10. The scatter indices between collocated TCHP values at these locations were 0.32, 0.22, 0.30, 0.30, 0.31, 0.58 and 0.41. Further, it was found that satellite-based TCHP from NRSC match better with in situ as compared to near-real-time TCHP data obtained from NOAA. TCHP from INCOIS-GODAS model, NOAA delayed time data and NRSC TCHP data set are also in good agreement with those from Argo profiles. As a case study, model and in situ TCHP were compared during a TC, “Thane” at two buoy locations (BD11 and BD13), closest to its track. The analysis revealed underestimation of model TCHP at BD11, but good correlation at BD13. This could be attributed to the existence of a strong temperature inversion at BD11. It is observed that although the model is able to capture features like barrier and inversion layers, the temperature and depth of such layers are underestimated. Further, the recovery time from the influence of TC on the ocean subsurface is also much longer in case of the model which thus needs to be fine-tuned. Seasonal comparison of TCHP from various sources with in situ estimated TCHP also shows better correlation between all the products for the pre-summer monsoon compared to the post-summer monsoon season.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) for the financial support and support from MoES and IIT Bhubaneswar for facilitating the execution of this research Project. TCHP data and buoy data were obtained from INCOIS, NOAA and NRSC and the cyclone best track data from IMD. The institutions are acknowledged for making the data available free of cost. One of the authors, BJ, was supported by a research fellowship by INCOIS under the Grant INCOIS:F&A:SSPDM:XII:A3:002 for carrying out this work.

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  1. School of Earth, Ocean & Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Argul Campus, Jatni, Odisha, 752050, India

    Babita Jangir, D. Swain, Samar Kumar Ghose & Rishav Goyal

  2. Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (MoES), Pragathi Nagar, Hyderabad, Telangana, 500090, India

    T. V. S. Udaya Bhaskar

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  1. Babita Jangir
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Jangir, B., Swain, D., Ghose, S.K. et al. Inter-comparison of model, satellite and in situ tropical cyclone heat potential in the North Indian Ocean. Nat Hazards 102, 557–574 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03756-4

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