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Disaster prediction model based on support vector machine for regression and improved differential evolution

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Abstract

The kernel parameters setting of SVM influences prediction precision. The hybrid model based on SVM for regression and improved differential evolution is proposed to enhance the prediction precision. The improved differential evolution is used to optimize the kernel parameters. The improved differential evolution algorithm employs two trial vector generation strategies and two control parameter settings. The first-generation strategy is with best solution, and the second strategy is without best solution. Three categories of disasters time series including flood, drought and storm from Ministry of agriculture of China are used to verify the validity of the proposed model. Compared with the grid SVM and other models, the proposed hybrid model improves the prediction precision of SVM.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), Social Science Foundation of Chinese Ministry of Education (No.12YJC630271), China Natural Science Foundation (No. 71273139, 71401078, 71503134, 91546117, 61673328/F030603), Research Center for Prospering Jiangsu Province with Talents (No. skrc201400-14) and philosophy and Social Sciences in Universities of Jiangsu (No. 2016SJB630016).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Xiaobing Yu

  2. Research Center for Prospering Jiangsu Province with Talents, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Xiaobing Yu

  3. China Institute for Manufacture Developing, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Xiaobing Yu

  4. School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Xiaobing Yu

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Correspondence to Xiaobing Yu.

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Yu, X. Disaster prediction model based on support vector machine for regression and improved differential evolution. Nat Hazards 85, 959–976 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2613-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2613-5

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