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Extreme snow hazard and ground snow load for China

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Abstract

The ground snow load is used as the reference snow load to estimate the design snow load on roofs. The ground snow load is recommended in Chinese load code for the design of building structures in the applicable jurisdiction; this load needs to be updated regularly by integrating new available snow measurements and new analysis techniques. This study is concentrated on the estimation of extreme snow depth and ground snow load and on snow hazard mapping in China by using historical snow measurement data. A probabilistic model of the snowpack bulk density was developed. For the extreme value analysis of annual maximum snow depth, both the at-site analysis and region of influence approach were applied. Also, several commonly used probabilistic models and distribution fitting methods were considered for the extreme value analysis. For the annual maximum snow depth, it was identified from the at-site analysis results that the number of sites where the lognormal distribution is preferred is greater than that where the Gumbel distribution is preferred. The 50-year return period value obtained from the ROI approach is insensitive to whether the three-parameter lognormal distribution or the generalized extreme value distribution is adopted. Maps of annual maximum snow depth and ground snow load were developed. Comparison of the estimated ground snow load to that recommended in the design code was presented, and potential updating to the ground snow load in the design code was suggested.

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Acknowledgments

Financial support received from National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51478147 and No. 41271087), National Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (RGPIN-2016-04814) and the University of Western Ontario is much acknowledged. We thank two reviewers for their constructive comments which helped us to improve the manuscript

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China

    H. M. Mo

  2. Key Lab of Structures Dynamics Behavior and Control of the Ministry of Education, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150090, China

    H. M. Mo & F. Fan

  3. Heihe Remote Sensing Experimental Research Station, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China

    L. Y. Dai & T. Che

  4. Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    T. Che

  5. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Western Ontario, London, N6A 5B9, Canada

    H. P. Hong

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  1. H. M. Mo
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  2. L. Y. Dai
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  3. F. Fan
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  4. T. Che
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  5. H. P. Hong
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Correspondence to H. P. Hong.

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Mo, H.M., Dai, L.Y., Fan, F. et al. Extreme snow hazard and ground snow load for China. Nat Hazards 84, 2095–2120 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2536-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2536-1

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