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Potential effects of climate changes on soil–atmosphere interaction and landslide hazard

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Abstract

In the recent years, the scientific community is involved in an intense debate around the effects of global warming. In fact, this could determine valuable changes in atmospheric forcing that govern the soil–atmosphere interaction and, in turn, water budget in the subsoil, with unpredictable consequences, inter alia, on geohydrological hazards. An early and proper assessment of the magnitude of such phenomena would be of great importance in establishing the priorities and timing in adaptation strategies. The paper reports some results obtained through a simulation chain which accounts for the potential climatic changes induced by two different socioeconomic concentration scenarios in atmospheric forcing and consequent changes in soil moisture and, then, slope response. The analyses concern a site located in Southern Italy, representative of Mediterranean area, deemed an “hot spot” for future climate changes. It is shown that, beyond the variations induced by climate changes, soil nature and land cover could play a major role.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. REMHI Regional Models and Geo-Hydrological Impacts Research Division, CMCC Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Capua, CE, Italy

    Guido Rianna & Paola Mercogliano

  2. DICDEA Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Design, Edilizia e Ambiente, Seconda Università di Napoli, Aversa, CE, Italy

    Luca Comegna & Luciano Picarelli

  3. Laboratorio di Meteorologia Applicata CIRA Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali, Capua, CE, Italy

    Paola Mercogliano

Authors
  1. Guido Rianna
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  2. Luca Comegna
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  3. Paola Mercogliano
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  4. Luciano Picarelli
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Correspondence to Guido Rianna.

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Rianna, G., Comegna, L., Mercogliano, P. et al. Potential effects of climate changes on soil–atmosphere interaction and landslide hazard. Nat Hazards 84, 1487–1499 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2481-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2481-z

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