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Estimating the abatement potential of provincial carbon intensity based on the environmental learning curve model in China

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Abstract

Increasing attention has been placed on the evaluation of CO2 abatement potential at national or sectoral level in China due to its largest energy consumption and carbon emission. However, few studies specialize in estimating provincial carbon reduction potential and its provincial differences. This paper estimates the carbon intensity abatement potential in China at provincial scale by exploring an environmental learning curve (ELC) model for carbon intensity. Per capita GDP, the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP and energy intensity are selected as three independent variables. Based on the ELC model, the carbon intensity reduction potentials of 30 provinces in 2020 are estimated for business-as-usual and planned scenarios. The results indicate that China’s total intensity abatement potential is 34.22 and 37.64 % in the two scenarios, respectively. For all provinces, energy intensity has the strongest positive learning ability among the three variables. Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Jilin and Shanghai play major roles to cut down carbon emission intensity due to their large reduction potentials. However, the intensity reduction potentials in Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Hainan are not obvious.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the anonymous referees for their helpful suggestions and corrections on the earlier draft of our paper. This study is funded by the Natural Science Foundation of China (71373172), Social Science major projects of Chinese Ministry of Education (15JZD021) and the Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science Research Fund Plan (15YJA790091). In addition, the authors want to thank Dr. Junna Yan and Dr. Juan Wang for their comments and suggestions. The authors also express their gratitude to postgraduate Zhiqiang Fu for providing his linguistic supports.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, China

    Fang Guo, Tao Zhao & Yue Wang

  2. College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, No. 3 Taicheng Road, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China

    Yanan Wang

Authors
  1. Fang Guo
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  2. Tao Zhao
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  3. Yanan Wang
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  4. Yue Wang
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yanan Wang.

Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 6, 7.

Table 6 Provincial saving targets of energy intensity in Twelfth Five-Year Plan
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Table 7 Provincial targets of GDP growth in province’s report on government work in 2016
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Guo, F., Zhao, T., Wang, Y. et al. Estimating the abatement potential of provincial carbon intensity based on the environmental learning curve model in China. Nat Hazards 84, 685–705 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2452-4

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