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A new multiple integral model for water shortage risk assessment and its application in Beijing, China

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Abstract

In terms of drought years, the assessment of water shortage risk is a significant precondition for taking effective measures to reduce the potential losses. This paper proposes a new multiple integral model for evaluating the risk of water shortage. First, the probability density function for water shortage was simulated. Second, a nonlinear function between vulnerability and its indicators was developed based on projection pursuit. Third, a function of consequence was proposed from the perspective of water-use benefit, and data envelopment analysis was applied to compute the water-use benefit coefficients. Fourth, risk was defined as a double integral in monetary units. Risks in Beijing, used as a case study, are assessed under different inflow scenarios (1956–2012) by using the model. The findings of the study were as follows: In 2020, the vulnerability was shown to vary from 0.93 to 0.99, and the maximum value occurs with the inflow conditions of 1980 and 2009. The probable maximum loss occurs with the inflow condition of 2006, and risk is approximately equal to 0.7 billion CNY. After using the transferred water and reclaimed water, all of the values for consequence vulnerability and risk are reduced, but the situation regarding supply and demand remains at a disadvantage in 2020.

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Acknowledgments

The study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51279006, 51479003, 41375002) and the National Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu (No. BK2013123). The authors would like to thank the Associate Editor and all the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and constructive suggestions, which led to an improvement in the presentation of this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Center of Ocean Environment Numerical Simulation, Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, 211101, China

    Longxia Qian, Ren Zhang, Mei Hong & Lizhi Yang

  2. College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, Beijing, 100875, China

    Hongrui Wang

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  1. Longxia Qian
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  2. Ren Zhang
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  3. Mei Hong
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  4. Hongrui Wang
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  5. Lizhi Yang
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Correspondence to Ren Zhang.

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Qian, L., Zhang, R., Hong, M. et al. A new multiple integral model for water shortage risk assessment and its application in Beijing, China. Nat Hazards 80, 43–67 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1955-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1955-8

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