Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Changes in volcanic hazard exposure in the Northwest USA from 1940 to 2100

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This investigation frames volcano disaster potentialities for the US Pacific Northwest by assessing the interaction of the region’s growing population and affiliated housing development with volcanic hazards. Changes in human and residential exposure to the hazards are measured for a period of 1940 through 2100 by employing fine-scale (100 m) historical, current, and forecast demographic data derived from a spatial allocation model. Forecast population and housing unit density data from the model are based on societal change scenarios generated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ensemble approach reveals variations and uncertainties in the future hazard exposures, illustrating an envelope of volcano disaster possibilities. The demographic data are evaluated using a three-step, worst-case, downscaling approach by first calculating possible regional impacts before measuring volcano proximal and, thereafter, local hazard consequences. Results indicate that the Northwest regional study area is forecast to experience as much as a 445 % increase in total population and 1336 % amplification in housing unit counts from 1940 to 2100. The Mount Rainier proximal and local hazard analyses reveal the greatest overall increase in the total population and housing units for the entire period of record, whereas the Glacier Peak proximal and local hazard zone are forecast to experience the greatest percentage increase in population and housing units. These findings may be used by emergency managers, land planners, insurers, decision makers, and the public to discover changes in volcanic hazard risk and exposure within their communities, as well as assess potential mitigation and sustainability options.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alig RJ, Healy RG (1987) Urban and built up land area changes in the United States: an empirical investigation of determinants. Land Econ 63:215–226

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashley WS, Strader S, Rosencrants T, Krmenec AJ (2014) Spatiotemporal changes in tornado hazard exposure: the case of the expanding bull’s-eye effect in Chicago, Illinois. Weather Clim Soc 6:175–193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balk D, Brickman M, Anderson B, Pozzi F, Yetman G (2005) Mapping global urban and rural population distributions: estimates of future global population distribution to 2015. Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center, Columbia University, Columbia

    Google Scholar 

  • Batty M (1997) Cellular automata and urban form: a primer. J Am Plann Assoc 63(2):266–274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baxter PJ, Ing R, Falk H, French Y, Stein J, Bernstein GF, Allard J (1981) Mount St Helens eruptions, May 18 to June 12, 1980: an overview of the acute health impact. JAMA 246(22):2585–2589

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benfield FK, Raimi MD, Chen DD (1999) Once there were greenfields: how urban sprawl is undermining America’s environment, economy, and social fabric. National Resources Defense Council, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhatta B, Saraswti S, Bandyopadhyay D (2010) Urban sprawl measurement from remote sensing data. Appl Geogr 30:731–740

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bierwagen BG, Theobald DM, Pyke CR, Choate A, Groth P, Thomas JV, Morefield P (2010) National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(49):20887–20892

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown DG, Johnson KM, Loveland TR, Theobald DM (2005) Rural land use trends in the conterminous U.S., 1950–2000. Ecol Appl 15:1851–1863

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burby RJ (1998) Cooperating with nature: confronting natural hazards with land-use planning for sustainable communities. Joseph Henry Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Census Bureau (2012) Growth in urban population outpaces rest of nation. Department of Commerce, United States Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/2010_census/cb12-50.html. Accessed 22 Feb 2014

  • Deichmann U, Balk D, Yetman G (2001) Transforming population data for interdisciplinary usages: From census to grid. Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center, Columbia University. 19 pp. http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw-v2/GPWdocumentation.pdf. Accessed 16 Nov 2013

  • Driedger C, Scott W (2008) Mount Rainier—living safely with a volcano in your background.  U. S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet (2008), pp 2008–3062

  • Druitt TH (1998) Pyroclastic density currents. Geol Soc Lond Spl Publ 145(1):145–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duany A, Plater-Zyberk E, Speck J (2000) Suburban nation: the rise of sprawl and the decline of the American dream. North Point Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Dzurisin D, Stauffer PH, Hendley II JW (2008) Living with volcanic risk in the Cascades. U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 165-97 Version 1.1. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1997/fs165-97/fs165-97.pdf. Accessed 11 Nov 2013

  • Easterbrook DJ (1975) Mount Baker eruptions. Geology 3(12):679–682

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ewing R (1994) Characteristics, causes, and effects of sprawl: a literature review. Environ Urban Issues 21(2):1–15

    Google Scholar 

  • Ewing R, Kostyack J, Chen D, Stein B, Ernst M (2005) Endangered by sprawl: how runaway development threatens America’s wildlife. National Wildlife Federation, Smart Growth America, and Nature Serve. Washington, DC

  • Frank DG, Meier MF, Swanson DA (1977) Assessment of increased thermal activity at Mount Baker, Washington, March 1975–March 1976: a summary of geothermally induced changes, progress report on geophysical and geochemical monitoring and analysis of hazards at Mount Baker (No. 1022). US Govt. Print. Off

  • Gerlach TM, McGee KA (1994) Total sulfur dioxide emissions and pre-eruption vapor-saturated magma at Mount St. Helens, 1980–88. Geophys Res Lett 21(25):2833–2836

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gillham O (2002) The limitless city: a primer on the urban sprawl debate. Island Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Greene RP, Pick JB (2013) Shifting patterns of suburban dominance: the case of Chicago from 2000 to 2010. J Maps 9:1–5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hall SG, Ashley WS (2008) The effects of urban sprawl on the vulnerability to a significant tornado impact in northeastern Illinois. Nat Hazards Rev 9:209–219

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen AJ, Piekielek NB, Davis C, Haas JR, Theobald DM, Gross JE, Monahan WB, Olliff T, Running SW (2014) Exposure of U.S. national parks to land use and climate change 1900–2100. Ecol Appl 24(3):484–502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hildreth W, Fierstein J, Lanphere M (2003) Eruptive history and geochronology of the Mount Baker volcanic field, Washington. Geol Soc Am Bull 115(6):729–764

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hunn ES, Norton HH (1984) Impact of Mt. St. Helens ashfall on fruit yield of mountain huckleberry, Vaccinium membranaceum, important native American food. Econ Bot 38(1):121–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, and New York, NY, 582 pp

  • IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, NY

  • Irwin EG, Bockstael NE (2002) Interacting agents, spatial externalities, and the endogenous evolution of residential land use pattern. J Econ Geogr 2(1):31–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jantz CA, Goetz SJ, Shelley MK (2003) Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. Environ Plan B Plan Des 31(2):251–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Katz B, Liu A (2000) Moving beyond sprawl: toward a broader metropolitan agenda. Brook Rev 18(2):31–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumpulainen S (2006) Vulnerability concepts in hazard and risk assessment. Spl Pap Geol Surv Finl 42:65

    Google Scholar 

  • Landis JD (1995) Imagining land use futures: applying the California urban futures model. J Am Plan Assoc 61:438–457

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landis J, Zhang M (1998) The second generation of the California urban futures model. Part 1: model logic and theory. Environ Plan B Plan Des 25:657–666

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mastin L, Waitt R (2005) Glacier peak—history and hazards of a Cascade volcano. U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 058-00 Online Version 1.0. http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2000/fs058-00/. Accessed 15 Dec 2013

  • Morss R, Wilhelmi O, Meehl GA, Dilling L (2011) Improving societal outcomes of extreme weather in a changing climate: an integrated perspective. Annu Rev Environ Resour 36:1–25

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mount Hood Facilitating Committee (2013) Mount Hood Coordination plan. http://www.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/plans_train/Earthquake/volcano_plan_mt-hood.pdf. Accessed 08 March 2014

  • Nowak D, Walton JT (2005) Projected urban growth (2000–2050) and its estimated impact on the US forest resource. J For 103(8):383–389

    Google Scholar 

  • Pierce County Department of Emergency Management. 2008: Mount Rainier Volcanic Hazards Plan. http://www.piercecountywa.org/DocumentCenter/View/3499

  • Schlossberg M (2003) GIS, the US Census and neighborhood scale analysis. Plan Pract Res 18:213–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sell TM (2011) Wings of power: Boeing and the politics of growth in the Northwest University of Washington. 192 pp

  • Svoboda E (2008) America’s 50 greenest cities. Popular Science. http://www.popsci.com/environment/article/2008-02/americas-50-greenest-cities?page=1%2C1. 05 Jan 2014

  • Theobald DM (2001) Land-use dynamics beyond the American urban fringe. Geogr Rev 9(3):1544–1564

    Google Scholar 

  • Theobald DM (2003) Targeting conservation action through assessment of protection and exurban threats. Conserv Biol 17(6):1624–1637

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Theobald DM (2005) Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020. Ecol Soc 10(1):32

  • Theobald DM, Hobbs NT (1998) Forecasting rural land use change: a comparison of regression- and spatial transition-based models. Geogr Environ Model 2:65–82

    Google Scholar 

  • Theobald DM, Crooks KR, Norman JB (2011) Assessing effects of land use on landscape connectivity: loss and fragmentation of western US forests. Ecol Appl 21(7):2445–2458

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United States Geological Survey (USGS) (2012) Geology and history summary for Mount Hood. http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mount_hood/mount_hood_geo_hist_93.html. Accessed 01 Aug 2013

  • United States Geological Survey (USGS) (2013a) Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO). http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/cvo/. Accessed 01 Aug 2013

  • United States Geological Survey (USGS) (2013b) Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO). http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/cvo/hazards.html. Accessed 01 Aug 2013

  • United States Geological Survey (USGS) (2014) 2004–2008 Renewed volcanic activity. http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/st_helens/st_helens_geo_hist_100.html Accessed 02 Feb 2014

  • U.S. EPA (2009) Land-use scenarios: national-scale housing-density scenarios consistent with climate change storylines. Final report. EPA/600/R-08/076F

  • Verburg PH, Soepboer W, Veldkamp A et al (2002) Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model. Environ Manag 30(3):391–405

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Verburg P, Kok K, Pontius RG (2006) Modeling land-use and land-cover change. In: Lambin E, Geist H (eds) Land-use and land-cover change: local processes, global impacts. Springer, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Waddell P (2002) UrbanSim: modeling urban development for land use, transportation and environmental planning. J Am Plan Assoc 68:297–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waldie DJ (2000) Do the voters really hate sprawl? New York Times. 3 March 2000. Accessed 14 June 2014

  • Witham C (2005) Volcanic disasters and incidents: a new database. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 148:191–233

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wood N, Soulard C (2009) Variations in population exposure and sensitivity to lahar hazards from Mt. Rainier, Washington. J Volcanol Geoth Res 188:367–378

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Dr. David Theobald (Conservation Science Partners) for providing us with the historical SERGoM model output. We appreciate the thoughtful reviews provided by the anonymous referees.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Davis Hall Room 118, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, 60115, USA

    Stephen M. Strader & Walker Ashley

  2. Department of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, USA

    James Walker

Authors
  1. Stephen M. Strader
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Walker Ashley
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. James Walker
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Stephen M. Strader.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Strader, S.M., Ashley, W. & Walker, J. Changes in volcanic hazard exposure in the Northwest USA from 1940 to 2100. Nat Hazards 77, 1365–1392 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1658-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1658-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation