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Economic impact upon agricultural production from extreme flood events in Quang Nam, central Vietnam

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Abstract

Quang Nam province, central Vietnam, is situated within the tropical monsoon and typhoon zone of south-east Asia and is susceptible to extreme floods. Historical water level data from 1976 to 2009 for the Vu Gia-Thu Bon river system have been used to simulate flood frequency, concluding that the floods experienced in 2004, 2009 and 2007 were congruent with 1:10-, 1:20- and 1:100-year floods, respectively, all occurring within the last decade (Institute of Geography 2012; Institute of Water Resources Planning in Review and update the flood prevention plan for central provinces: Vu Gia-Thu Bon river. Water Resources Planning Institute, Hanoi, 2011). Since the most productive agricultural land is concentrated along the low-lying sections of river systems, losses to agriculture in extreme flooding can be significant. Using ex-post data, this study estimates the direct damage to agricultural production caused by three flood classes, 1:10-, 1:20- and 1:100-year floods in Quang Nam. Utilising geo-spatial inundation maps together with the timing of the floods with respect to crop rotation, calculation is made of flood-depth susceptibility rates for the four main crop types. These susceptibility rates are then applied to calculate the damage value and also the percentage loss in value for the four crop types under the three flood classes. Benefit-cost ratios were calculated under ‘with’ and ‘without’ extreme flood events. In addition, both scenario and sensitivity analyses were conducted. The estimated value of direct losses to the four main crops for a 1:10-, 1:20- and 1:100-year flood is approximately VND22 billion, VND115 billion and VND147 billion, respectively. These represent a percentage loss in value in the inundated areas for 1:10-, 1:20- and 1:100-year floods, of 12, 56 and 62 %, respectively. Benefit-cost ratios, already very low for subsistence farmers, are further eroded in years of extreme floods, with many farmers experiencing a net loss. This study will help to inform flood management decision-makers in central Vietnam.

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Notes

  1. Including both the agriculture statistics division and the meteorology division.

  2. In all some 36 interviews and discussions took place.

  3. Details of this data can be obtained from the corresponding author.

  4. An increase of 30 % is used since in Table 2 an inundation depth of >3 m for the 2009 flood shows a susceptibility rate for rice of 29 %, and for ‘other vegetables’ of 70 %, so the more conservative option has been assumed for the worst-case.

  5. In rare situations (for example in remote areas) the price of rice can be double the usual price (pers comm. District Agricultural Officer).

  6. In 2010 the rice yield for the US was roughly 7.5 tonne/ha (FAO 2012), some 40 % higher than Vietnam’s rice yield. Since the US is one of the most technologically advanced rice producing countries, we have assumed that a 30 % increase in yield would be possible. In addition, the average annual rice yields in the ‘more’ flood-prone districts increased 25 and 10 % in the 2000–2005 and 2005–2011 periods, respectively (see Fig. 2).

  7. For the province as a whole, benefits just outweigh costs for both these floods as well as for the 1:10-year flood.

  8. A reduction in crop yields of more than 27, 12 and 13 % would result in a B/C < 1.0 for a 1:10, 1:20 and 1:100-year flood, respectively.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Agriculture and Environment, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

    Vu Ngoc Chau & John Holland

  2. School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

    Sue Cassells

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  1. Vu Ngoc Chau
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  2. Sue Cassells
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  3. John Holland
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Correspondence to Vu Ngoc Chau.

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Chau, V.N., Cassells, S. & Holland, J. Economic impact upon agricultural production from extreme flood events in Quang Nam, central Vietnam. Nat Hazards 75, 1747–1765 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1395-x

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