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Assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Phetchabun and Krabi provinces, Thailand

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Abstract

Shallow landslides are a common type of rainfall-induced landslide, and various methods are currently used to predict their occurrence on a regional scale. Physically based models, such as the shallow landslide instability prediction (SLIP) model, have many advantages because these models can assess the hazards of shallow landslides dynamically, based on physical stability equations that consider rainfall as a triggering factor. The main objective of this research is to test the SLIP model’s potential to predict shallow landslide hazards in Thailand. To achieve this goal, the SLIP model was applied to two massive landslide events in Thailand. The results predicted by the SLIP model for the two study areas are outlined, and the model prediction capabilities were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic plot. The Phetchabun results showed that the western part of the catchment had the lowest factor of safety (F S) value, whereas the Krabi results showed that the slopes surrounding the peak of Khao Panom Mountain had the lowest F S value, explaining the highest potentials for shallow landslides in each area. The SLIP model showed good performance: The global accuracies were 0.828 for the Phetchabun area and 0.824 for the Krabi area. The SLIP model predicted the daily time-varying percentage of unstable areas over the analyzed periods. The SLIP model simulated a negligible percentage of unstable areas over all considered periods, except for expected dates, suggesting that the prediction capability is reasonably accurate.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-8) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. This research was conducted by the IMPAC-T project supported by JST/JICA, SATREPS, Japan. We wish to thank Dr. Suttisak Soralump at Kasetsert University in Thailand for his helpful support. Part of this research was supported by a Grant-in-Aid for JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science) Fellows.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CTI Engineering Co., Ltd., 3-21-1 Nihonbashihamacho, Chuo ku, Tokyo, 103-8430, Japan

    Keisuke Ono

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, Tohoku University, 6-6-06, Aramaki aza aoba, Aoba ku, Sendai, 980-8579, Japan

    So Kazama

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, 126 Pracha Uthit Road, Bang Mod, Thung Khru, Bangkok, 10140, Thailand

    Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit

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  1. Keisuke Ono
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Correspondence to Keisuke Ono.

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Ono, K., Kazama, S. & Ekkawatpanit, C. Assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Phetchabun and Krabi provinces, Thailand. Nat Hazards 74, 2089–2107 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1292-3

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