Abstract
It is true that such a long-range forecasting of lightning is not possible, the reason being the abrupt high value of the parameters at the time of lightning strike as compared to other weather conditions. But still a system that will predict the occurrence of lightning over few minutes or few hours will be beneficial for protection of lives and equipments. In this work, atmospheric electric field data are used for devising an alarm system for lightning. With the help of Markov chain stochastic modelling of the electric field data, probabilities of a lightning strike are calculated.
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Acknowledgments
This work is supported by government of India, ministry and department of science and technology, Technology Bhavan, New Mehrauli Road, New Delhi—110 016, as INSPIRE fellow IF10631. Authors are thanking them for their support and sponsorship for this work. Authors are also thankful to department of science and technology, government of Jharkhand, to provide fund and instruments for lightning research and Mr. Prem Prakash with Mr. A. K. Dwivedi for their suggetions on this work.
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Srivastava, A., Mishra, M. & Kumar, M. Lightning alarm system using stochastic modelling. Nat Hazards 75, 1–11 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1247-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1247-8