Abstract
With increasing threat to lives and properties, identifying and assessing disaster potentials has become necessary and prior for effective disaster preparation and rescue planning. This study first introduces practical methods currently used in Taipei City, Taiwan, to identify and assess heavy rainfall–induced potential risks on flood, debris flow, and landslide. The identified disaster potential information is further applied to a series of deterministic and probabilistic risk analyses using Shilin District of Taipei City as a case study. The deterministic risk analyses are conducted to evaluate the impact of various heavy rainfall intensities on the residents. The probabilistic risk analyses are performed to establish risk curves for the population affected by heavy rainfall–induced hazards. The risk curve represents the relationships between the affected population and the annual exceedance probability. This study found the annual exceedance probability is very sensitive to the assumed coefficients of variation of the affected population. It is recommended historical statistical data on the correlation between affected population and rainfall intensity should be recorded and compiled in order to assess the actual probability distribution function of the affected population. Risk analysis results are further applied to assess the community evacuation capacity in this district. Last, short-term and long-term mitigation strategies and recommendations are discussed.
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Acknowledgments
The finical support for this study was provided by the Taiwan Ministry of Interior under the grant for “Disaster Prevention and Protection Project of Taipei City.” The authors also would like to thank the Taipei City Fire Department, Geotechnical Engineering Office, and Hydraulic Engineering Office of Taipei City Government for providing valuable information and feedback for this study. Last, the authors sincerely appreciate the constructive comments by the anonymous reviewers.
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Chou, JS., Yang, KH., Cheng, MY. et al. Identification and assessment of heavy rainfall–induced disaster potentials in Taipei City. Nat Hazards 66, 167–190 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0511-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0511-z