Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Flood hazard and damage assessment in the Ebro Delta (NW Mediterranean) to relative sea level rise

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The impact of relative sea-level rise (RSLR), damage to and possible responses in the Ebro Delta (NW Mediterranean) has been analyzed. Impact was determined by delineating delta areas prone to flooding under different RSLR scenarios. The surface areas of the different habitats were then quantified for flooding impact and affected ecosystems were assessed. The obtained results enabled us to characterize the Ebro Delta as a coastal environment that is highly sensitive to changes in sea level, with affected flooded areas likely to range between about 45 and 60 % for different RSLR scenarios, from which about 26 % would be inundated by subsidence only. In absolute terms, the habitat most likely to be affected by flooding was cropland. In relative terms, the most affected habitats were those typical of the lowest areas: saltwater wetlands, riparian buffer and areas of saline vegetation. Under present deltaic evolution with no sediment supply, adaptation is considered a plausible option for managing the Ebro delta under a RSLR scenario. This implies permitting surface area losses or land use changes in the lower parts of the delta, where natural values will be reinforced, and concentrating agriculture in the higher parts of the deltaic plain.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Barth MC, Titus JG (eds) (1984) Greenhouse effect and sea level rise. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Bayó A, Loaso C, Aragonés JM, Custodio E (1992) Marine intrusion and brackish water in coastal aquifers of Southern Catalonia and Castelló (Spain): a brief survey of actual problems and circumstances. In: Study and modelling of saltwater intrusion into aquifers, CIMNE, Barcelona, pp 741–766

  • Bruun P (1962) Sea-level rise as a cause of shore erosion. J Waterw Div-ASCE 88(1–3):117–130

    Google Scholar 

  • Casanova D, Goudriaan J, Bouma J, Epema GF (1999) Yield gap analysis in relation to soil properties in direct-seeded flooded rice. Geoderma 91:191–216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coops H, van Geest G, Jiménez JA, Gracia V, van Buren R (2007) Case study Floodsite. Sea-level rise and wetland habitats in the Ebro delta. FLOODsite report T26-07-02

  • Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Meisner C, Wheeler D, Yan J (2009) The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis. Clim Chang 93:379–388

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Day JW Jr, Martin JF, Cardoch L, Templet PH (1997) System functioning as a basis for sustainable management of delatic ecosystems. Coast Manag 25:115–153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dean RG, Dalrylmple AR, Fairbridge RW, Leatherman SP, Nummedal D, O’Brien MP, Pilkey OH, Sturges W III, Wiegel RL (1987) Responding to changes in sea level: engineering implications. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) (2006) Shoreline management plan guidance: aims and requirements (vol. 1) and procedures (vol. 2). Defra, London

  • Doody JP (2004) “Coastal squeeze”—a historical perspective. J Coast Conserv 10:129–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elphick CS (2000) Functional equivalency between rice fields and seminatural wetland habitats. Conserv Biol 14:181–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ericson JP, Vorosmarty CJ, Dingman SL, Ward LG, Meybeck M (2006) Effective sea level rise and deltas: causes of change and human dimension implications. Glob Planet Chang 50:63–82

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Espanya A (1997) Las actividades humanas en el delta y su incidencia en la conservación del patrimonio natural. Revista de Obras Públicas 3368:89–99

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferrero A (2007) Rice scenario in the European Union. Cahiers Agric 16:272–277

    Google Scholar 

  • FitzGerald DM, Fenster MS, Argow BA, Buynevich IV (2008) Coastal Impacts Due to Sea-Level Rise. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 36:601–647

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gambolati G, Teatini P, Gonella M (2002) GIS simulations of the inundation risk in the coastal lowlands of the Northern Adriatic Sea. Math Comput Model 35(9–10):963–972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goudie A (2006) Global warming and fluvial geomorphology. Geomorphology 79:384–394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guillén J, Palanques A (1997) A historical perspective of the morphological evolution in the lower Ebro river. Environ Geol 30:174–180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ibáñez C, Canicio A, Day JW (1997) Morphologic evolution, relative sea-level rise and sustainable management of water and sediment in the Ebre Delta. J Coast Conserv 3:191–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ibáñez C, Sharpe PJ, Day JW, Day JN, Prat N (2010) Vertical accretion and relative sea level rise in the Ebro Delta Wetlands (Catalonia, Spain). Wetlands 30:979–988

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiménez JA, Sánchez-Arcilla A (1993) Medium-term coastal response at the Ebro, Spain. Mar Geol 114:105–118

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiménez JA, Sánchez-Arcilla A (1997) Physical impacts of climatic change on deltaic coastal systems (II): driving terms. Clim Chan 35:95–118

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiménez JA, Sánchez-Arcilla A, Valdemoro HI, Gracia V, Nieto F (1997) Processes reshaping the Ebro delta. Mar Geol 144:59–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiménez JA, Valdemoro HI, Bosom E, Gracia V (2011) Storm-induced coastal hazards in the Ebro delta (NW Mediterranean). Coastal Sediments 2011, World Scientific Press, Singapore, pp 1332–1345

    Google Scholar 

  • Klein RJT, Nicholls RJ, Mimura N (1999) Coastal adaptation to climate change: can the IPCC technical guidelines be applied? Mitig Adapt Strat Global Chang 3:1573–1596

    Google Scholar 

  • Lane SN, Tayefi V, Reid SC, Yu D, Hardy RJ (2007) Interactions between sediment delivery, channel change, climate change and flood risk in a temperate upland environment. Earth Surf Proc Land 32:429–446

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leafe R, Pethick J, Townend I (1998) Realizing the benefits of shoreline management. Geogr J 164:282–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Leatherman SP (1979) Migration of Assateague Island, Maryland, by inlet and overwash processes. Geology 7:104–107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lowe JA et al (2009) UK Climate Projections science report: marine and coastal projections. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter

    Google Scholar 

  • Maldonado A (1986) Dinámica sedimentaria y evolución litoral reciente de1 Delta de1 Ebro (Mediterráneo occidental). In: Mariño M (ed) El Sistema Integrado de1 Ebro: Cuenca. Delta y Medio Marino. Hermes, Madrid, pp 33–60

    Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA et al (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 747–845

    Google Scholar 

  • Menéndez M, Hernández O, Comín FA (2002) Spatial distribution and ecophysiological characteristics of macrophytes in a Mediterranean coastal lagoon. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 55:403–413

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ (2004) Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environ Chang 14:69–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Klein RJT (2005) Climate change and coastal management on Europe’s coast. In: Vermaat JE, Bouwer L, Turner K, Salomons W (eds) Managing European coasts: past, present and future. Springer, Berlin, pp 199–226

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Wong PP, Burkett V, Codignotto J, Hay J, McLean R, Ragoonaden S, Woodroffe CD (2007) Coastal systems and low-lying areas. In: Parry ML, Canziani O, Palutikof JP, van der Linden P, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 315–357

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Hanson S, Herweijer C, Patmore N, Hallegatte S, Corfee-Morlot J, Château J, Muir-Wood R (2008a) Ranking port cities with high exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: exposure estimates. OECD environment working papers No. 1, ENV/WKP(2007). OECD, Paris, France

  • Nicholls RJ, Tol RSJ, Vafeidis AT (2008b) Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND. Clim Chang 91:171–191

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Brown S, Hanson S, Hinkel J (2010) Economics of coastal zone adaptation to climate change. Discussion paper No. 10. The World Bank, Washington DC, USA

  • Overeem I, Syvitski JPM (2008) Changing sediment supply in arctic rivers. Sediment dynamics in changing environments. Proceedings of a symposium held in Christchurch, New Zealand, December 2008) IAHS Publ 325

  • Pearce DW, Turner RK (1990) Economics of natural resources and the environment. BPCC Wheatsons Ltd, Exeter

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfeffer WT, Harper JT, O’Neel S (2008) Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st century sea-level rise. Science 321:1340–1343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poulter B, Goodall JL, Halpin PN (2008) Applications of network analysis for adaptive management of artificial drainage systems in landscapes vulnerable to sea level rise. J Hydrol 357:207–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reyes E, White ML, Martin JF, Kemp GP, Day JW, Aravamuthan V (2000) Landscape modeling of coastal habitat change in the Mississippi delta. Ecology 81:2331–2349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Solecki W (2001) Climate change and a global city; the potential consequences of climate variability and change—metro East Coast. Report for the US global change program. Columbia Earth Institute, New York, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Sánchez-Arcilla A, Jimenez JA, Valdemoro HI (1998) The Ebro Delta: morphodynamics and vulnerability. J Coast Res 14:754–772

    Google Scholar 

  • Sánchez-Arcilla A, Jiménez JA, Valdemoro HI, Gracia V (2008) Implications of climatic change on Spanish Mediterranean low-lying coasts: the Ebro Delta case. J Coast Res 24:306–316

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Somoza L, Barnolas A, Arasa A, Maestro A, Rees JG, Hernández-Molina FG (1998) Architectural stacking patterns of the Ebro delta controlled by Holocene high-frequency eustatic fluctuations delta-lobe switching and subsidence processes. Sediment Geol 117:11–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • St Martin K (1993) Applications in coastal zone research and management. Explorations in geographical information systems technology, vol 3. United Nations Institute for Training and Research, Switzerland

  • Syvitski JPM, Saito Y (2007) Morphodynamics of Deltas under the influence of humans. Glob Planet Chang 57:261–282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Syvitski JPM, Kettner AJ, Overeem I, Hutton EWH, Hannon MT, Brakenridge GR, Day J, Vorosmarty C, Saito Y, Giosan L, Nicholls RJ (2009) Sinking deltas due to human activities. Nat Geosci 2:681–686

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thumerer T, Jones AP, Brown D (2000) A GIS based coastal management system for climate change associated flood risk assessment on the east coast of England. Int J Geo Inf Sci 14:265–281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Titus JG, Park RA, Leatherman SP, Weggel JR, Greene MS, Mausel PW, Brown S, Gaunt C, Trehan M, Yohe G (1991) Greenhouse effect and sea level rise: potential loss of land and the cost of holding back the sea. Coast Manag 19:171–204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Valdemoro HI, Sanchez-Arcilla A, Jiménez JA (2007) Coastal dynamics and wetlands stability. The Ebro delta case. Hydrobiologia 577:17–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Valiela I (2006) Global coastal change. Blackwell, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Yin J, Xu S, Wang J, Zhong H, Hu Y, Yin Z, Wang K, Zhang X (2010) Vulnerability assessment of combined impacts of sea level rise and coastal flooding for China’s coastal region using remote sensing and GIS. 18th international conference on geoinformatics, pp 1–4

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work has been done in the framework of the VuCoMa and PaiRisC-M research projects, funded by the Spanish Ministry of Research and Innovation (CTM2008-05597/MAR and CTM2011-29808 respectively). Additional support was given by the Spanish Ministry of Environment, Marine and Rural Affairs. Ebro delta topographic data were obtained from Institut Cartogràfic de Catalunya.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratori d’Enginyeria Marítima, ETSECCPB, Universitat Politécnica de Catalunya, BarcelonaTech, c/Jordi Girona 1-3, Campus Nord ed. D1, 08034, Barcelona, Spain

    Dagoberto Alvarado-Aguilar & José A. Jiménez

  2. International Centre for Coastal Resources Research, Barcelona, Spain

    Dagoberto Alvarado-Aguilar & José A. Jiménez

  3. School of Civil Engineering, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 IBJ, UK

    Robert J. Nicholls

Authors
  1. Dagoberto Alvarado-Aguilar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. José A. Jiménez
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Robert J. Nicholls
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to José A. Jiménez.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Alvarado-Aguilar, D., Jiménez, J.A. & Nicholls, R.J. Flood hazard and damage assessment in the Ebro Delta (NW Mediterranean) to relative sea level rise. Nat Hazards 62, 1301–1321 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0149-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0149-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation