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Consistency in hurricane surface wind forecasting: an improved parametric model

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Abstract

A parametric hurricane wind model has been developed based on the asymmetric Holland-type vortex model. The model creates a two-dimensional surface wind field based on the National Hurricane Center forecast (or observed) hurricane wind and track data. Three improvements have been made to retain consistency between the input parameters and the model output and to better resolve the asymmetric structure of the hurricane. First, in determination of the shape parameter B, the Coriolis effect is included and the range restriction is removed. It is found that ignoring the Coriolis effect can lead to an error greater than 20% in the maximum wind speed for weak but large tropical cyclones. Second, the effect of the translational velocity of a hurricane is excluded from the input of specified wind speeds before applying the Holland-type vortex to avoid exaggeration of the wind asymmetry. The translational velocity is added back in at the very end of the procedure. Third, a new method has been introduced to develop a weighted composite wind field that makes full use of all wind parameters, not just the largest available specified wind speed and its 4-quadrant radii. An idealized hurricane and two historical Gulf of Mexico hurricanes have been used to test the model. It is found that the modified parametric model leads to better agreement with field observation compared with the results from the unmodified model. This will result in better predictions of hurricane waves and storm surges.

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Acknowledgments

The study has been supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) (Grant No. 0652859), the NSF Northern Gulf Coastal Hazards Collaboratory (Grant No. 1010640), the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through the Northern Gulf Institute (Grant No. 09-NGI-08), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant No. 40806033). Computational resources were provided by the Louisiana Optical Network Initiative (LONI) and Louisiana State University. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF, NOAA or NSFC.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, 3418 Patrick F. Taylor Hall, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA

    Kelin Hu & Qin Chen

  2. State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China

    Kelin Hu

  3. Department of Earth Sciences, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL, USA

    Sytske K. Kimball

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  1. Kelin Hu
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  2. Qin Chen
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  3. Sytske K. Kimball
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Correspondence to Kelin Hu.

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Hu, K., Chen, Q. & Kimball, S.K. Consistency in hurricane surface wind forecasting: an improved parametric model. Nat Hazards 61, 1029–1050 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9960-z

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