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An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management

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Abstract

Effective flood incident management (FIM) requires successful operation of complex, interacting human and technological systems. A dynamic agent-based model of FIM processes has been developed to provide new insights which can be used for policy analysis and other practical applications. The model integrates remotely sensed information on topography, buildings and road networks with empirical survey data to fit characteristics of specific communities. The multiagent simulation has been coupled with a hydrodynamic model to estimate the vulnerability of individuals to flooding under different storm surge conditions, defence breach scenarios, flood warning times and evacuation strategies. A case study in the coastal town of Towyn in the United Kingdom has demonstrated the capacity of the model to analyse the risks of flooding to people, support flood emergency planning and appraise the benefits of flood incident management measures.

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Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the Environment Agency project Reliability in Flood Incident Management Planning (SC060063). Miao Wang’s studentship is funded from an EPSRC Doctoral Training Account. Richard Dawson is supported by an EPSRC Career Acceleration Fellowship (EP/H003630). Data sets used in this study were provided by the Ordnance Survey, Environment Agency of England and Wales, The Department for Transport, The Office for National Statistics, The Centre for Interaction Data Estimation and Research and Conwy County Borough Council.

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  1. School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Newcastle University, Cassie Building, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK

    Richard J. Dawson, Roger Peppe & Miao Wang

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  1. Richard J. Dawson
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  2. Roger Peppe
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  3. Miao Wang
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Correspondence to Richard J. Dawson.

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Dawson, R.J., Peppe, R. & Wang, M. An agent-based model for risk-based flood incident management. Nat Hazards 59, 167–189 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9745-4

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