Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Vulnerabilities and migration in Small Island Developing States in the context of climate change

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Natural Hazards Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The unique characteristics of Small Island Developing States and structural vulnerabilities they face in terms of development have earned them particular consideration in the development agenda. This article sheds light on some of the vulnerabilities that these countries face, making particular reference to their environmental and economic vulnerabilities. It then highlights the ambiguous role that international migration plays in the recreation of those vulnerabilities.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Note, that not all SIDS are geographically islands; non-island economies such as Belize, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana and Surinam have nevertheless been included in the list as they share most other characteristics common to SIDS.

  2. Following the criteria of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), disasters are events where at least 10 people are reported as having been killed, at least 100 people are affected, a state of emergency is declared or where a request for international assistance is made by the national Government.

  3. Whilst hazards such as wild fires, insect infestations end epidemics are also widespread, this note focuses only on the above-mentioned list.

  4. Whilst future dynamical changes in ice flows will increase sea-levels further, sea-level increases up to 7 m is only likely if global average warming (relative to pre-industrial values) exceeds 1.9–4.6°C and is maintained for millennia (IPCC 2007).

  5. According to the IPCC, the occurrence of tropical typhoons and cyclones may increase by as much as 50–60% whilst their intensity may increase by 10–20% (IPCC 2007). More recent evidence (Webster et al. 2005) points to a doubling in frequency of category 4 and 5 cyclones since the 1970s, whilst Emanuel (2005) shows that the potential destructiveness of hurricanes has increased markedly since the mid-1970s due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. Indeed, acknowledging that hurricanes show substantial interdecadal variability, the IPCC (2007) deems it likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea-surface temperatures [p. 46].

  6. In Kiribati this is due to water scarcity but also a result of lack of appropriate infrastructure to cope with increased immigration to the capital atoll Tarawa (World Bank 2006b).

  7. In fact, even ‘rainy’ islands like the Seychelles are experiencing problems because up to 98% of the rainwater is currently lost to the sea or through evaporation. Modest investments in rainwater harvesting systems could play their part in remedying the problem, experts claim (UNEP 2004).

  8. Geological disasters such as earthquakes usually cause higher damage to assets and render more persons homeless, with fewer damages, particularly in economies based on agriculture. Climatic disasters, such as severe wind storms, flooding or drought, usually have a more significant impact on losses.

References

  • Adams RH Jr (2006) International remittances and the household: analysis and review of global evidence. J Afr Econ 15(Suppl 2):396–425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Auffret P (2003) Catastrophe insurance market in the Caribbean region: market failures and recommendations for public sector interventions. World Bank policy research working paper 2963

  • Barnett J, Adger N (2003) Climate dangers and atoll countries. Clim Change 61(3):321–337. doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004559.08755.88

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Docquier F, Marfouk A (2004) Measuring the international mobility of skilled workers (1990–2000): release 1.0. Policy research working paper series 3381, The World Bank

  • Easterly W, Kraay A (1999) Small states, small problems? World Bank policy research working paper no. 2139

  • ECLAC (2006) Fiscal policy and tax reform in the Caribbean. LC/CAR/L.94

  • Emanuel K (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436(4):686–688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gani A, Ward BD (1995) Migration of professionals from Fiji to New Zealand: a reduced form supply-demand model. World Dev 3(9):1633–1637

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gassebner M, Keck A, Teh R (2006) The impact of disasters on international trade. WTO staff working paper ERSD-2006-04

  • Guilluamont P (2007) Assessing the economic vulnerability of small island developing states and least developed countries. UNU-WIDER research paper no. 2007/40

  • Heger M, Julca A, Paddison O (2008) Analysing the impact of natural disasters in small economies: the Caribbean case. UNU-WIDER research paper, No. 2008/25. United Nations University-World Institute for Development Economics Research, Helsinki

  • Hoegh-Guldberg O, Hoegh-Guldberg H, Stout DK, Cesar H, Timmerman A (2000) Pacific in peril. Greenpeace, Sydney, Australia, p 36

    Google Scholar 

  • Inter-American development Bank (IADB) & International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) 2007 Sending money home. Worldwide remittance flows to developing countries. Washington, DC

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) Working group II to the third assessment report. Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 854–855

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) IPCC fourth assessment report. Climate Change 2007. The physical science basis summary for policymakers

  • International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) (2004) Living with risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. UN Publications, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • International Strategy for Disaster Reduction-International Recovery Platform (IRP) (2007). Learning from disaster recovery. Guidance for decision makers. A publication from the International Recovery Platform. Supported by the Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC), International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) secretariat, and the United Nations Development Programme. Preliminary Version for Consultation, May 2007

  • Lauermann JF (1997) Trouble in paradise. Environ Health Perspect 105(9). http://www.ehponline.org/docs/1997/105-9/focus-full.html. doi:10.2307/3433870

  • Mimura N, Nurse L, McLean RF, Agard J, Briguglio L, Lefale P, Payet R, Sem G (2007) Small islands. Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 687–716

  • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (2005) Trends in international migration. SOPEMI 2004 edition

  • Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy JE, Laza RC, Visperas RM, Zhong X, Centeno GS, Khush GS, Cassman KG (2004) Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101:9971–9975. doi:10.1073/pnas.0403720101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rallu JL (2008) The impact of migration on population structures in Polynesia and implications on MDG achievement. UNDP PC sub-regional workshop: MDG-base planning, costing and budgeting for the Polynesian countries, May 26–29

  • Rasmussen T (2004) Macroeconomic implications of natural disasters in the Caribbean. IMF working paper WP/04/224

  • Sahay R (2005) Stabilization, debt, and fiscal policy in the Caribbean. IMF working paper WP/05/26

  • South Pacific Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) (2002) Towards managing environmental vulnerability in small island developing states (SIDS). SOPAC miscellaneous report 461, Concept paper, April 2002

  • Stilwell B, Diallo K, Zurn P, Vujicic M, Adams O, Dal Poz M (2004) Migration of health-care workers from developing countries: strategic approaches to its management. Bull World Health Organ 82(595):600

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor EJ (1992) Remittances and inequality reconsidered: direct, indirect and intertemporal effects. J Policy Model 14(2):187–208. doi:10.1016/0161-8938(92)90008-Z

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United Nations (2008) World economic and social survey 2008: overcoming economic insecurity. Sales no E.08.II.C.1

  • United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (1999) Human development report. Globalization with a human face. Oxford University Press, New York/Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2006) Human development report. Beyond scarcity: power, poverty and the global water crisis. Oxford University Press, New York/Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2004) Atlantic and Indian oceans—environment outlook. Kenya

  • Webster PJ, Holland G, Curry J, Chang H (2005) Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309:1844–1846. doi:10.1126/science.1116448

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (2006a) Expanding job opportunities for Pacific islanders through labour mobility, August 2006. Washington, DC. Available at http://go.worldbank.org/M4H36D06V0

  • World Bank (2006b) Not if but when: adapting to natural hazards in the Pacific Islands region. Washington, DC. Available at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPACIFICISLANDS/Resources/Natural-Hazards-report.pdf

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Development Policy and Analysis Division, United Nations, 2 U.N. Plaza, New York, NY, 10017, USA

    Alex Julca & Oliver Paddison

Authors
  1. Alex Julca
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Oliver Paddison
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Oliver Paddison.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Julca, A., Paddison, O. Vulnerabilities and migration in Small Island Developing States in the context of climate change. Nat Hazards 55, 717–728 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9384-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9384-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation