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Earthquake prediction activities and Damavand earthquake precursor test site in Iran

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Abstract

Iran has long been known as one of the most seismically active areas of the world, and it frequently suffers destructive and catastrophic earthquakes that cause heavy loss of human life and widespread damage. The Alborz region in the northern part of Iran is an active EW trending mountain belt of 100 km wide and 600 km long. The Alborz range is bounded by the Talesh Mountains to the west and the Kopet Dagh Mountains to the east and consists of several sedimentary and volcanic layers of Cambrian to Eocene ages that were deformed during the late Cenozoic collision. Several active faults affect the central Alborz. The main active faults are the North Tehran and Mosha faults. The Mosha fault is one of the major active faults in the central Alborz as shown by its strong historical seismicity and its clear morphological signature. Situated in the vicinity of Tehran city, this 150-km-long N100° E trending fault represents an important potential seismic source. For earthquake monitoring and possible future prediction/precursory purposes, a test site has been established in the Alborz mountain region. The proximity to the capital of Iran with its high population density, low frequency but high magnitude earthquake occurrence, and active faults with their historical earthquake events have been considered as the main criteria for this selection. In addition, within the test site, there are hot springs and deep water wells that can be used for physico-chemical and radon gas analysis for earthquake precursory studies. The present activities include magnetic measurements; application of methodology for identification of seismogenic nodes for earthquakes of M ≥ 6.0 in the Alborz region developed by International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, IIEPT RAS, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow (IIEPT&MG RAS); a feasibility study using a dense seismic network for identification of future locations of seismic monitoring stations and application of short-term prediction of medium- and large-size earthquakes is based on Markov and extended self-similarity analysis of seismic data. The establishment of the test site is ongoing, and the methodology has been selected based on the IASPEI evaluation report on the most important precursors with installation of (i) a local dense seismic network consisting of 25 short-period seismometers, (ii) a GPS network consisting of eight instruments with 70 stations, (iii) magnetic network with four instruments, and (iv) radon gas and a physico-chemical study on the springs and deep water wells.

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Acknowledgments

This work would not have been achieved without kind and generous support of Prof. M. Ghafoury-Ashtiany, Dr. F. Yami-fard, Dr. K. Hessami, Mrs. L. Mahshadnia, Mrs. P. Moboyen, Mr. M. Shierzaei, Mrs. M. Akbari, Mr. A.M. Asgari, Dr. M. Tatar, Dr. M. R. Rahimi Tabar, and Dr. I. Abdollahie-Fard, whom I am very thankful. I would like to express my sincere thanks to Dr. F. Freund and two anonymous reviewers for critically reviewing the manuscript and giving valuable advice not only in improving the text but also correcting them technically.

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    Mohammad Mokhtari

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Mokhtari, M. Earthquake prediction activities and Damavand earthquake precursor test site in Iran. Nat Hazards 52, 351–368 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9375-2

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