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Seismic behaviour of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey): implications for earthquake recurrence times and future seismic hazard

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Abstract

Possible long-term seismic behaviour of the Northern strand of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, between western extreme of the 1999 İzmit rupture and the Aegean Sea, after 400 AD is studied by examining the historical seismicity, the submarine fault mapping and the paleoseismological studies of the recent scientific efforts. The long-term seismic behaviour is discussed through two possible seismicity models devised from M S ≥ 7.0 historical earthquakes. The estimated return period of years of the fault segments for M1 and M2 seismic models along with their standard deviations are as follows: F4 segment 255 ± 60 and 258 ± 12; F5 segment 258 ± 60 and 258 ± 53; F6 segment 258 ± 60 and 258 ± 53; F7 segment 286 ± 103 and 286 ± 90; F8 segment 286 ± 90 and 286 ± 36. As the latest ruptures on the submarine segments have been reported to be during the 1754–1766 earthquake sequence, and the 1912 mainshock rupture has been evidenced to extend almost all over the western part of the Sea of Marmara, our results imply imminent seismic hazard and, considering the mean recurrence time, a large earthquake to strike the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara in the next two decades.

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Acknowledgements

The authors extend special thanks to Dr. A.O. Öncel for kindly providing the declustered background seismicity of the study area of the period 1981–1999. This research was partially supported by Scientific and Technological Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) post-doctoral fellowship.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geophysical Engineering Department, Sakarya University, Esentepe Kampus, Adapazarı, 54187, Sakarya, Turkey

    Murat Utkucu & Fatih Sünbül

  2. Department of Geophysics, Süleyman Demirel University, Çünür, Isparta, Turkey

    Zakir Kanbur

  3. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Boğaziçi University, Çengelköy, İstanbul, 81220, Turkey

    Ömer Alptekin

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  1. Murat Utkucu
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Correspondence to Murat Utkucu.

Appendix: Description for historical seismicity

Appendix: Description for historical seismicity

This section comprises macroseismic effects of earthquakes occurred on the part of the Northern strand that is focused in this study and discussed in the text. Compiled from Soysal et al. (1981), Ambraseys and Finkel (1987, 1991, 1995), Ambraseys and Jackson (2000), Ambraseys (2001a, b); Ambraseys (2002a, b), Papazachos and Papazachou (1997) and Altınok et al. (2003). See Figs. 2 and 3 for location names and Fig. 2a for the epicentre map.

1 April 407 earthquake (M S 6.8)

This earthquake occurred in the Sea of Marmara and caused damage in İstanbul, especially in Bakırköy District, coast of which was occupied with a number of corpses, and reported to not seriously affect any other populated places.

25 September 437 earthquake (M S 6.8)

The earthquake and succeeded severe aftershocks for 4 months led to flee of Byzantines from İstanbul. The earthquake was so severe that the city walls came down and large part of the city was damaged. The magnitude of the mainshock was assigned as 6.5 by Papazachos and Papazachou (1997).

6 November 447 earthquake (M S 7.2)

This was a catastrophic earthquake that ruined İzmit with reported subsidence of ground, opening of ground cracks, triggering of landslides and seismic sea waves. Part of the city along the coast slumped into the sea. It also caused damage in İstanbul, many public buildings were ruined and the greater part of the city walls were overthrown with its 57 towers.

25 September 478 earthquake (M S 7.3)

This earthquake affected the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara and around the Gulf of İzmit. Karamürsel and İzmit were totally ruined and İstanbul was badly damaged with great loss of life. A damaging sea wave also reported.

484 earthquake (M S 7.2)

This was a major earthquake that affected the western part of the Sea of Marmara with serious loss of life. Gelibolu and Şehitlikler was completely destroyed and long walls at Ortaköy ruined. Çanakkale, Lapseki and Bozcaada also sustained serious damage.

16 August 554 earthquake (M S 6.9)

This earthquake caused severe damage in İzmit and İstanbul. Many houses, baths, churches and public buildings as well as the walls of İstanbul were devastated.

14 December 557 earthquake (M S 6.9)

This shock affected the north coast of the Sea of Marmara, west of Küçük Çekmece district of İstanbul in particular. Many public buildings and houses in İstanbul were destroyed and the city walls were damaged. A large number of people perished beneath the rubble.

26 October 740 earthquake (M S 7.1)

A violent and destructive shock that affected the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara caused enormous loss of life and property. The wall of the cities, public buildings and private houses located in the affected area such as in İzmit, Karamürsel, İznik and İstanbul were seriously destroyed or ruined. The sea permanently retreated in some places such that the coast line changed. The aftershocks continued for twelve months.

5 May 824 earthquake (M S ≈ 7.0)

This earthquake has been classified as the largest earthquake that devastated Tekirdağ coast of the Sea of Marmara, and the places that were destroyed by the earthquakes include Barbaros and Marmara Ereğli. The earthquake appeared as October 823 event at Barbaros in Ambraseys (2002).

23 May 860 earthquake (M S 6.8)

Having an epicentral area at some distance to İstanbul in the Sea of Marmara, this severe earthquake caused partial damage to the city walls and collapse of a number of private houses and public buildings in İstanbul.

9 January 869 earthquake (M S 7.0)

This earthquake caused notable damage in İstanbul and was followed by aftershocks that strong enough to cause additional damage. The historical sources detail damage or collapse of many churches in İstanbul.

25 October 989 earthquake (M S 7.2)

This was a major earthquake that caused extensive destruction in the eastern part of the Sea of Marmara with İstanbul, İzmit, Kocaeli Peninsula and some provinces in Thrace took the brunt of the damage. Many public buildings and parts of the city walls damaged or collapsed. The shaking was felt in throughout Greece.

8 January 1010 earthquake (M S 7.4)

Papazachos and Papazachou (1997) reported that this earthquake was a violent shock and caused severe damage in İstanbul and Gelibolu peninsula. They gave an epicentral location on Gelibolu peninsula, at 40.6 N; 27.0 E. The shock caused fall of the city walls of İstanbul. Aftershocks related this event continued till March 1010. This event possibly corresponds to 9 March 1011 earthquake in Ambraseys and Finkel (1991), who reported that this destructive shock was preceded by a strong foreshock in January and caused great casualties in İstanbul.

23 September 1063 earthquake (M S 7.4)

This was a destructive earthquake that severely affected the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara between İstanbul and Dardanelles and followed by at least one destructive aftershock. The places destroyed by the earthquake include Tekirdağ, Barbaros, Mürefte and partly İstanbul. The largest part of Erdek on Asiatic coast was also damaged.

11 March 1231 earthquake (M S 6.9)

This earthquake was not included in both Ambraseys and Finkel (1991); Ambraseys (2002a). However, it was included in the catalogues of both Soysal et al. (1981) and Papazachos and Papazachou (1997). Papazachos and Papazachou (1997) reported that this shock was large enough to cause damage to the city walls of İstanbul and to be felt as far as the western coast of The Aegean Sea.

1 June 1296 earthquake (M S 7.0)

This shock reported to be larger than the one occurred in 1231 and followed by long lasting aftershocks. Serious damage to houses, public buildings and the city walls of İstanbul were reported. It also affected some Asiatic provinces of the region.

18 October 1343a earthquake (M S 6.9)

This earthquake represents the first shock of the large earthquake sequence ca1350. It caused enormous damage along the coast of Thrace and Gelibolu peninsula. The towns of Mürefte and Hoşköy were ruined. In İstanbul variable damage to the private housed and public buildings and breaching of the city walls and fortification were reported.

18 October 1343b earthquake (M S 7.0)

This was a larger shock that followed the first shock on 18 October 1343. The shock ruined the towns of Gaziköy, Hoşköy and Ortaköy, caused damage in Marmara Island and İstanbul. The large sea waves accompanied to the shock and rushed inland for about 2 km. A large aftershock on 6 November 1344 amplified the destruction of this shock.

1 March 1354 earthquake (M S 7.4)

This earthquake was so strong that extensive damage was reported in Gelibolu peninsula and the all along the Marmara coast of Thrace with great loss of life. Tekirdağ, Mürefte, Gelibolu and Bozcaada were all ruined. Damages were also reported inland districts of Thrace, south of Gelibolu peninsula and in İstanbul where city walls collapsed in several places.

10 September 1509 earthquake (M S 7.2)

This was a destructive earthquake that caused extensive damage in the Marmara region with great loss of life, especially in İstanbul. Many mosques, public buildings and other monuments in İstanbul were destroyed or damaged, including fortification around the city. Water inundation due to seismic sea waves and sand ejections along the littoral area took place in İstanbul. Various degrees of damage were also reported to occur in Büyük Çekmece, Silivri, İznik, Edirne, around Gulf of İzmit and Gelibolu peninsula.

17 February 1659 earthquake (M S 7.2)

This earthquake caused damage in Gelibolu, Tekirdağ and İstanbul and was felt in some distant places in the south of the Sea of Marmara. Based on its macroseismic effects, this shock was classified as a large earthquake that occurred somewhere in Gelibolu peninsula–Saros gulf area.

25 May 1719 earthquake (M S 7.2)

This earthquake caused severe destruction in the locations around Gulf of İzmit, including İstanbul, İzmit, Yalova, Karamürsel, Sapanca, with thousands of casualties. The damage in İstanbul, where many mosques and towers were demolished and fortification around the city was damaged. The damage extended as far as Düzce in the east and inland locations in Thrace in the west.

2 September 1754 earthquake (M S 7.1)

This was a large earthquake that affected the eastern Sea of Marmara and caused heavy loss of life. The damage was severe in İstanbul and İzmit. In İstanbul, city walls and many mosques and public buildings were damaged. The slight damage extended to the Black Sea coast and Bursa and İznik in the south of the Sea of Marmara. Ground fissures and recession of the sea were also reported.

22 May 1766 earthquake (M S 7.1)

This was the first and the eastern one of the two large magnitude earthquakes that struck the Sea of Marmara and surrounding region in 1766. Severe destruction with fatalities accounted with thousands took place along the northern coast from İzmit in the east to Tekirdağ in the west, comprising southern littoral area of Gulf of İzmit. Slight damage extended further west to Gelibolu peninsula and Bozcaada and further inland to Thrace, to Çorlu and Edirne. Damage in Bursa in the south was also reported. The earthquake accompanied by seismic sea-wave that caused flooding and considerable damage in İstanbul, along the Bosphorus and the southern coast of the Sea of Marmara.

5 August 1766 earthquake (M S 7.4)

Second and much likely larger in the 1766 sequence, this shock severely effected west and southwest of İstanbul. Region between Silivri and Bozcaada was severely damaged with heavy loss of life. Tekirdağ, Silivri and Gaziköy (Ganos), Gölcük, Hoşköy, Şarköy, Gelibolu towns in Gelibolu peninsula were all ruined. Some damage extended to İstanbul, İzmit and Karamürsel in the west, Bursa and Biga peninsula (see Fig. 1) in the south and inland Thrace, including Edirne. Damage in İstanbul was not serious compared to the earlier shock in the sequence.

10 July 1894 earthquake (M S 7.3)

Like the 1999 İzmit earthquake, this earthquake severely damaged Yeşilköy, Çekmece, Yalova, Hersek, Gölcük, İzmit and Adapazarı, the places vulnerable to the earthquake strong ground motion due to local site condition (Ambraseys 2001). Probably ruptured a sequence of fault segments from Sapanca to Yalova, namely Sapanca, Gölcük, Karamürsel and Yalova segments.

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Utkucu, M., Kanbur, Z., Alptekin, Ö. et al. Seismic behaviour of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey): implications for earthquake recurrence times and future seismic hazard. Nat Hazards 50, 45–71 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9317-4

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