Abstract
A widely used method for adjusting past annual storm losses to present day values, needed to address the ever-changing socio-economic conditions, was assessed. The property insurance industry developed a comprehensive method for adjusting losses in past years to current year loss values. Characteristics of hurricanes occurring 50+ years ago and those in the recent years were examined to find similar early and recent pairs of storms for a comparative evaluation of their property losses. One pair found was Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989), and another pair with similar features was Hurricanes Carol (1954) and Bob (1991). The insurance-based adjusted property loss values for these two pairs of storms were compared to determine if the early year values were comparable to the recent year values. The adjusted losses of the two pairs of hurricanes were found to have small differences of 7.8% and 8.1%, and these differences were due to somewhat different storm paths and slightly higher wind speeds in the two storms having higher losses. The adjustment method appears to adequately capture time differences in storm losses due to changes in population, wealth, inflation, structural density, and insurance coverage.
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Changnon, S.A., Changnon, D. Assessment of a method used to time adjust past storm losses. Nat Hazards 50, 5–12 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9307-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9307-6