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Developing tsunami warnings from numerical model output

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Abstract

A method is introduced for issuing tsunami warnings in the Australian region based on numerical model output. The method considers the maximum modelled wave amplitude within pre-defined coastal waters zones and uses this as a proxy for the potential impact on the coast. A three-level stratified warning is proposed: (1) No threat, (2) Marine threat and (3) Land threat. This method is applied to several case studies and the resulting warning characteristics are shown. While the method has its limitations, it is a significant improvement over current operational warning strategies, which are typically based solely on the magnitude of the earthquake and distance from the source.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank Arthur Simanjuntak, Tony Leggett, Geoff Crane and the rest of the ATWS team within the Bureau of Meteorology and Geoscience Australia for very useful discussions and John Bally, Matthew Wheeler and an anonymous reviewer for their useful and constructive reviews.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. BMRC, Bureau of Meteorology, G.P.O. Box 1289, Melbourne, VIC, 3001, Australia

    S. C. R. Allen & D. J. M. Greenslade

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  1. S. C. R. Allen
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  2. D. J. M. Greenslade
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Correspondence to S. C. R. Allen.

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Allen, S.C.R., Greenslade, D.J.M. Developing tsunami warnings from numerical model output. Nat Hazards 46, 35–52 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9180-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-007-9180-8

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