Abstract
This paper addresses the problem of interdependent failures of critical infrastructures in disasters. Disruptions to critical infrastructure systems such as electric power or transportation frequently cause major social and economic loss in disasters, both directly and through failures in one system leading to or compounding disruptions in another. Strategic approaches regarding infrastructure failures are needed to guide community mitigation and preparedness efforts. This paper defines and provides a conceptual framework for investigating infrastructure failure interdependencies (IFIs) from the standpoint of societal impacts. In order to identify empirical patterns, a unique database has been developed of IFIs observed in major electric power outage events. This paper presents analysis of this data for a major Canadian disaster, the 1998 Ice Storm that affected the northeastern region of the country. The analysis identifies IFIs due to power outage caused by the storm that are of greatest societal concern. These represent potential foci for effective, targeted pre-disaster mitigation and preparedness efforts. The framework and approach are broadly applicable across a range of natural and human-induced hazards.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Amin M (2004) North American electricity infrastructure: system security, quality, reliability, availability, and efficiency challenges and their societal impacts. In: National Science Foundation report on Continuing crises in national transmission infrastructure: impacts and options for modernization, p 20
Ezell BC, Farr J, Wiese I (2000) Infrastructure risk analysis of municipal water distribution system. J␣Infrastruct Syst 6(3):118–122
Finkel A, Golding D (1994) Worst things first: the debate over risk-based priorities. Resources for the Future. Washington, DC
GOC (Government of Canada) (2004) Position paper on a national strategy for critical infrastructure protection. http://www.ocipep.gc.ca/critical/nciap/NSCIP_e.pdf
Keeney RL (1982) Decision analysis: an overview. Oper Res 30:803–838
Keeney R (1992) Value-focused thinking: a path to creative decision making. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA
Keeney R, von Winterfeldt D (1989) On the uses of expert judgment on complex technical problems. IEEE Trans Eng Manage 36:83–86
Keeney R, von Winterfeldt D (1991) Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems. IEEE Trans Eng Manage 38:191–201
Lecomte EL, Pang AW, Russell JW (1998) Ice Storm ’98. Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Research Paper Series No. 1, p 45
McDaniels T, Small M (eds) (2003) Risk analysis and society: an interdisciplinary characterization of the field. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Mileti DS (1999) Disasters by design. Joseph Henry Press, Washington, DC
Morgan GM, Henrion M (1990) Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge University Press, New York
NRC (National Research Council) (1996) Understanding risk: informing decisions in a democratic society. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
Nicolet Commission (1999) Facing the unforeseeable: lessons from the ice storm of ’98. Rapport de la Commission scientifique et technique chargée d’analyser les événements relatifs à la tempête de verglas survenue du 5 au 9 janvier 1998, Quebec
Nojima N, Kameda H (1996) Lifeline interactions in the Hanshin-Awaji earthquake disaster. In: Committee of Earthquake Engineering, The 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake: investigation into damage to civil engineering structures. Society of Civil Engineers, Tokyo, pp 253–264
PCCIP (President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection) (1997) Critical foundations: protecting America’s infrastructure. Washington
Peerenboom J, Fisher RE, Rinaldi SM, Kelly TK (2002) Studying the chain reaction. Electr Persp January/February:22–35
Purcell M, Fyfe S (1998) Queen’s University Ice Storm ’98 study: emergency preparedness and response issues. Emergency Preparedness Canada, Ottawa
Rinaldi SM, Peerenboom JP, Kelly TK (2001) Critical infrastructure interdependencies. IEEE Control Syst Mag December:11–25
Slovic P (1987) Perception of risk. Science 236:280–285
Slovic P (1999) Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: surveying the risk-assessment battlefield. Risk Anal 19(4):689–701
Stewart TR, Bostrom A (2001) Extreme event decision making workshop report. Arlington, Virginia. http://www.albany.edu/cpr/xedm/
Thomas WH, North MJ, Macal CM, Peerenboom JP (2003) From physics to finances: complex adaptive systems representation of infrastructure interdependencies, Naval Surface Warfare Center. Dahlgren Division Technical Digest, 58–67
Yao B, Xie L, Huo E (2004) Study effect of lifeline interaction under seismic conditions. In: Proc. 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering. Vancouver, Canada, Paper no. 3152, p 12
Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grant number CMS-0332002. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1st Canadian Risk and Hazards Network Symposium in November 2004.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chang, S., McDaniels, T., Mikawoz, J. et al. Infrastructure failure interdependencies in extreme events: power outage consequences in the 1998 Ice Storm. Nat Hazards 41, 337–358 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9039-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-9039-4