Abstract
Conventional oil and gas productions in Louisiana has been in decline for four decades, but in recent years, new technology and capital investment have opened up a significant new resource play in the Haynesville shale, reversing Louisiana’s gas production decline. The need for long-term forecasting has become more important for state planning and for facilitating efficient regulatory development and incentive programs, as the largest oil and gas fields diminish in productivity and the promise of unconventional resources are realized. The purpose of this article is to present a hydrocarbon production forecast for Louisiana using disaggregate resource classes and a transparent analytic framework. A field-level evaluation is employed for producing fields categorized by primary product, resource category, geographic area, and production class. Undiscovered fields are classified according to conventional and unconventional categories and are modeled using a probabilistic and scenario-based forecast. The analytic framework is described along with a discussion of the model results and limitations of the analysis. Louisiana is in the early stages of transitioning to a primarily gas-producing state, and the manner in which the Haynesville shale develops will play a critical role in deliverability and economic prospects in the future.
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Notes
State offshore waters extend three imperial nautical miles from the coastline.
If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 90% probability that the quantities of proved reserves actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. For probable and possible reserves, the exceedance probabilities are 50% for probable and 10% for possible reserves.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has recently issued new guidelines on PUD classification (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission 2008).
Some areas of the U.S., such as offshore California and Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and onshore/offshore Alaska have significant discovered undeveloped fields, but because of regulatory constraints, public opposition, or other factors, development has not progressed.
For example, the Tuscaloosa marine shale is estimated to contain between 7 and 10 billion barrels of oil (about 10–20 times the state’s proven oil reserves) and the Smackover brown dolomite also shows promise. The economics of these plays have yet to be established, but the results of drilling programs should be known within the next few years.
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Funding for this research was provided through the U.S. Department of the Interior and the Coastal Marine Institute, Louisiana State University.
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This article was prepared on behalf of the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy, Management and Enforcement (BOEMRE), Gulf of Mexico OCS region, and has not been technically reviewed by the BOEMRE. The opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bureau of Ocean Energy, Management and Enforcement.
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Kaiser, M.J., Yu, Y. A Scenario-Based Hydrocarbon Production Forecast for Louisiana. Nat Resour Res 21, 143–162 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-011-9168-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-011-9168-7