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Water yield, nitrogen and sediment retentions in Northern Japan (Teshio river watershed): land use change scenario analysis

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Abstract

We investigated the effects of changing land use on water yield, and nitrogen (N) and sediment retentions in the Teshio river watershed in northern Japan. The Land Use and it’s Effects (CLUE) model was used to predict land use change and multilevel Bayesian analysis was used to quantify relationships between water quality components and topographical slope. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrology model was used to simulate water yield, N and sediment retentions under land use change scenarios. Most of the study area was covered by forest in 1976, 2006 and 2036, with rice fields totally converted to farmland by 2036. There were positive correlations between water yield, inorganic-N yield, sediment yield and organic-N yield and topographical slope, but there was negative correlation between nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N) in the bottom of soil profile and topographical slope. Sediment and organic-N yields of forest were less than those of other land uses. Water yield, organic-N and sediment retentions were largest in the southeast of the study watershed, while the inorganic-N retention was highest along the riverine area. In comparison with the 1976 land use pattern, water yield sediment retention and organic-N retention decreased under 2006 and 2036 land use patterns while inorganic-N retention increased. We conclude that planning a comprehensive adaptation and mitigation program (e.g. establishing riparian zones, planning nutrient management practices and integrating systematic conservation planning into agricultural expansion) is necessary to avoid negative impacts of land use change on water yield, N and sediment retentions in the watershed.

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Acknowledgments

This study was partly supported by a scholarship from the China Scholarship Council. The work was conducted under the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change, supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (MEXT).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Kita 10, Nishi 5, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan

    Min Fan

  2. Forest Research Station, Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University, Kita 9, Nishi 9, Sapporo, 060-0809, Japan

    Hideaki Shibata

Authors
  1. Min Fan
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  2. Hideaki Shibata
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Min Fan.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Table ESM-1

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Table ESM-2

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Table ESM-3

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Table ESM-4

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Table ESM-5

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Table ESM-6

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Table ESM-7

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Table ESM-8

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Appendix

Appendix

This section contains electronic supplementary materials (ESMs) for the article, “Water yield, nitrogen and sediment retentions in northern Japan (Teshio river watershed)”. Parameter estimates of multilevel Bayesian regression predicting inorganic-N yield from slope, land use type and soil type was shown in a Table ESM-1. Parameter estimates of multilevel Bayesian regression predicting NO3-N in the bottom of soil profile from slope, land use type and soil type was shown in a Table ESM-2. Parameter estimates of multilevel Bayesian regression predicting sediment yield from slope, land use type and soil type was shown in a Table ESM-3. Parameter estimates of multilevel Bayesian regression predicting organic-N yield from slope, land use type and soil type was shown in a Table ESM-4. Multilevel Bayesian regression predicting inorganic-N yield from average slope, land use type and soil type was shown in a Table ESM-5. Multilevel Bayesian regression predicting NO3-N in the bottom of soil profile from average slope, land use type and soil type was shown in a Table ESM-6. Multilevel Bayesian regression predicting sediment yield from average slope, land use type and soil type was shown in a Table ESM-7. Multilevel Bayesian regression predicting organic-N yield from average slope, land use type and soil type was shown in a Table ESM-8.

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Fan, M., Shibata, H. Water yield, nitrogen and sediment retentions in Northern Japan (Teshio river watershed): land use change scenario analysis. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 21, 119–133 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9574-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9574-3

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