Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

An econometric analysis of sub-national Clean Development Mechanism performance in China

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The objective of this research is to conduct a quantitative analysis of China’s sub-national Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) performance as a case study of unbalanced CDM performance within a CDM host country. Key results are as follows: First, investment climate is the most decisive factor, which can explain about 48 % (adjusted R-squared) of China’s sub-national CDM performance at significance level 0.1 %. Second, general economic and investment conditions have a collective determination effect, which together explain about 50 % (adjusted R-squared) of sub-nationall CDM performance. Third, when compared with previous research in which the economic and investment conditions explain about 55 % (adjusted R-squared) of unbalanced CDM performance on the international level, it becomes clear that the impact of the economic and investment conditions on China’s sub-national unbalanced CDM performance resembles the unbalanced performance at the international level. Hence, we conclude that the sub-national unbalanced CDM performance in China is similar to that of the international level, and is influenced by similar determining factors. This finding casts doubt on the previous policy suggestion to fix the geographically unbalanced CDM performance simply by national discrimination, such as by revoking CDM eligibility of an entire host country. Consequently, a more tailored approach is advisable to manage that eligibility on the sub-national level. This is a more precise response to geographically unbalanced CDM performance and is less likely to discourage participation of the dominant CDM host countries in international climate mitigation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aden N (2010) Initial assessment of NBS energy data revisions. LBNL China Energy Group. http://china.lbl.gov/sites/china.lbl.gov/files/NBS%20Energy%20Data%20Revisions%209.13.10.pdf. Cited 26 Mar 2013

  • Air Resources Board of California Environmental Protection Agency (2006) Assembly Bill No. 32 California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006. http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/pub/05-06/bill/asm/ab_0001-0050/ab_32_bill_20060927_chaptered.pdf. Cited 29 Aug 2011

  • Archibugi D, Coco A (2004) A new indicator of technological capabilities for developed and developing countries (ArCo). World Dev 32(4):629–654

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bäckstrand K, Lövbrand E (2006) Planting trees to mitigate climate change: contested discourses of ecological modernization, green governmentality and civic environmentalism. Global Environ Polit 6(1):50–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bakker S, van Asselt H, Gupta J, et al (2009) Differentiation in the CDM: options and impacts. Report 500102 023. ECN-B--09-009. Netherlands Research Programme on Scientific Assessment and Policy Analysis for Climate Change (WAB). http://www.rivm.nl/bibliotheek/rapporten/500102023.pdf. Cited 29 Aug 2011

  • Ball J (2008) UN effort to curtail emissions in turmoil. Wall Street Journal, A1. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120796372237309757.html. Cited 29 Aug 2013

  • Banuri T, Gupta S (2000) The Clean Development Mechanism and sustainable development: an economic analysis. In: Ghosh P (ed) Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol: opportunities and pitfalls for developing countries. Asian Development Bank, Manila

    Google Scholar 

  • Capoor K, Ambrosi P (2006) State and trends of carbon market 2006. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Capoor K, Ambrosi P (2007) State and trends of carbon market 2007. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Capoor K, Ambrosi P (2008) State and trends of carbon market 2008. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Capoor K, Ambrosi P (2009) State and trends of carbon market 2009. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Castro P (2008) Empirical analysis of performance of CDM projects: case study China, discussion paper CDM-6. Institute of Political Science, University of Zurich, Zurich. http://www.climatestrategies.org/research/our-reports/category/39/167.html. Cited 24 Jun 2011

  • Castro P, Michaelowa A (2009) The impact of CER discounting on the competitiveness of different CDM host countries. Climate Strategies. http://www.climatestrategies.org/our-reports/category/39/136.html. Cited 29 Aug 2011

  • Castro P, Michaelowa A (2011) Would preferential access measures be sufficient to overcome current barriers to CDM projects in least developed countries? Clim Dev 3(2):123–142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chung RK (2007) A CER discounting scheme could save climate change regime after 2012. Clim Policy 7(2):171–176

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CMCA (2012) 2012 Chinese administrative divisions. SinoMaps

  • Cosbey A, Murphy D, Drexhage J et al (2006) Making development work in the CDM. Phase II of the development dividend Project. International Institute for Sustainable Development, Winnipeg

    Google Scholar 

  • Dechezlepretre A, Glachant M, Meniere Y (2008) The Clean Development Mechanism and the international diffusion of technologies: an empirical study. Energ Policy 36(4):1273–1283

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ellis J, Winkler H, Corfee-Morlot J, Gagnon-Lebrun F (2007) CDM: taking stock and looking forward. Energ Policy 35(1):15–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fuhr H, Lederer M (2009) Varieties of carbon governance in newly industrializing countries. J Environ Dev 18:327–345

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ganapati S, Liu L (2008) The Clean Development Mechanism in China and India: a comparative institutional analysis. Public Admin Dev 28:351–362

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guruswamy L D, Hendricks B R (2007) international environmental law in a nutshell. Thomson/West, St. Paul, MN

  • Harnisch J, Hendriks C (2000) Economic evaluation of emission reductions of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 in Europe; special report : contribution to the study "Economic evaluation of sectoral emission reduction objectives for climate change" on behalf of the Commission of the European Union Directorate General Environment. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/enveco/climate_change/pdf/emission_reductions.pdf. Cited 3 Sep 2013

  • High-Level Panel on the CDM Policy Dialogue (2012a) Assessing the impact of the Clean Development Mechanism. http://www.cdmpolicydialogue.org/research/1030_impact.pdf. Cited 17 Oct 2013

  • High-Level Panel on the CDM Policy Dialogue (2012b) Climate change, carbon markets and the CDM: a Call to Action. http://www.cdmpolicydialogue.org/report/rpt110912.pdf. Cited 17 Oct 2013

  • IGES (2005) Asian perspectives on climate change beyond 2012: concerns, interests and priorities. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies. Hayama, Japan

    Google Scholar 

  • IGES (2006) Asian aspirations on climate regime beyond 2012. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies. Hayama, Japan

    Google Scholar 

  • Jung M (2006) Host country attractiveness for CDM non-sink projects. Energ Policy 34(15):2173–2184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kollmuss A, Lazarus M, Smith G (2010) discounting offsets: issues and options. Working paper WP-US-1005. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm

  • Kossoy A, Ambrosi P (2010) State and trends of carbon market 2010. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Kossoy A, Guigon P (2012) State and trends of carbon market 2012. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Larson DF, Breustedt B (2007) Will markets direct investments under the Kyoto Protocol? World Bank policy research working paper 4131. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Lecocq F (2004) State and trends of carbon market 2004. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Lecocq F, Capoor K (2005) State and trends of carbon market 2005. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Linacre N, Kossoy A, Ambrosi P (2011) State and trends of carbon market 2011. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Lloyd B, Subbarao S (2009) Development challenges under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)—can renewable energy initiatives be put in place before peak oil? Energ Policy 37(1):237–245

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCulloch A (2005) Incineration of HFC-23 waste streams for abatement of emissions from HCFC–22 production: a review of scientific, technical and economic aspects. https://cdm.unfccc.int/methodologies/Background_240305.pdf. Cited 15 Apr 2010

  • MSDP (2001) National strategy study for the participation of Bolivia in the CDM: executive summary. La Paz: Programa Nacional De Cambios Cl Imát Icos, VMARNDF - MSDP. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCC/1081874-1115369143359/20480407/NSS-PartBoliviaCDM-ExSummary.pdf. Cited 06 Mar 2013

  • Mehrotra A, Paakkonen J (2011) Comparing China’s GDP statistics with coincident indicators. J Comp Econ 39:406–411

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Michaelowa A, Purohit P (2007) Additionality determination of Indian CDM Projects: can Indian CDM project developers outwit the CDM Executive Board? Discussion paper CDM-1, Climate Strategies, London, 2007. http://www.noe21.org/docs/Michaelowa-teripress-2007. Cited 29 Aug 2011

  • Mumma A (2000) The poverty of Africa’s position at the climate change convention negotiations. UCLA J Environ Law Pol 19:181–210

    Google Scholar 

  • Nagle JC (2009) Discounting China’s CDM dams. Loyola Int Law Rev 7(1):9–26

    Google Scholar 

  • NBSC (2006) China statistical yearbook 2006. China Statistical Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • NBSC (2007) China statistical yearbook 2007. China Statistical Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • NBSC (2008) China statistical yearbook 2008. China Statistical Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • NBSC (2009) China statistical yearbook 2009. China Statistical Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • NBSC (2010) China statistical yearbook 2010. China Statistical Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • NBSC (2011) China statistical yearbook 2011. China Statistical Press, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (2007) China now No. 1 in CO2 emissions; USA in second position. http://www.pbl.nl/en/dossiers/Climatechange/moreinfo/Chinanowno1inCO2emissionsUSAinsecondposition. Cited 29 Jan 2012

  • Olawuyi DS (2009) Achieving sustainable development in Africa through the Clean Development Mechanism: legal and institutional issues considered. Afr J Int & Comp Law 17:270–301

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rawski TG (2001) What is happening to China’s GDP statistics? China Econ Rev 12:347–354

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • SAC (1990) GB2589-Zhong He Neng Hao Ji Suan Tong Ze (General Principles for calculation of total production energy consumption). http://114.255.43.243/news_view6.asp?lm2=10&id=336. Cited 29 Jan 2012

  • Schatz A (2008) Discounting the Clean Development Mechanism. Georgetown Int Environ Law Rev 20:703–742

    Google Scholar 

  • Schneider L (2007) Is the CDM fulfilling its environmental and sustainable development objective? An evaluation of the CDM and options for improvement (Report prepared for WWF by Öko-Institut, Berlin 2007). http://www.oekoinstitut.de/oekodoc/622/2007-162-en.pdf. Cited 28 Aug 2011

  • Schneider L (2008) A Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) with atmospheric benefits for a post-2012 climate regime. Öko-Institut, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Schroeder M (2009) Varieties of carbon governance: utilizing the Clean Development Mechanism for Chinese priorities. J Environ Dev 18:371–394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seres S, Haites E, Murphy K (2009) Analysis of technology transfer in CDM projects: an update. Energ Policy 37(11):4919–4926

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Silayan A (2005) Equitable distribution of CDM projects among developing countries. HWWA Paper No. 55. pp 53-54 Hamburg Institute of International Economics, Hamburg

  • Sokona Y, Humphreys S, Thomas JP (1998) What prospects for Africa? In: Goldenberg J (ed) Issues and options: the Clean Development Mechanism. UNDP, New York, pp pp. 109–pp. 118

    Google Scholar 

  • Song J (2010) The road to the successful Clean Development Mechanism: lessons from the Past. Dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  • Sterk W, Wittneben B (2006) Enhancing the clean development through sectoral approaches definitions, applications and ways forward. Int Environ Agreem-P 6:271–287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teravainen T (2009) The Challenge of Sustainability in the politics of climate change: a Finnish perspective on the Clean Development Mechanism. Politics 29:173–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tollefson J (2008) Carbon-trading market has uncertain future. Nature, 452, 3 April.

  • UN (1992) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. New York

  • UN (1998) Kyoto Protocol to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. New York

  • UNFCCC (2001) Decision 16/CP.7 Guidelines for the implementation of Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol, FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.2. UNFCCC, Bonn

  • UNFCCC (2005-2010) Project Search. http://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/projsearch.html. Cited 04 Aug 2011

  • UNFCCC (2008a) Analysis of possible means to reach emission reduction targets and of relevant methodological issues. Technical Paper, FCCC/TP/2008/2. UNFCCC, Bonn

  • UNFCCC (2008b) Emissions trading and the project-based mechanisms: draft conclusions proposed by the chair. FCCC/KP/AWG/2008/L.12. UNFCCC, Bonn

  • UNFCCC (2011–2012) Project Search. http://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/projsearch.html. Cited 04 Aug 2013

  • UNFCCC (2013) CDM development benefits. http://cdm.unfccc.int/about/ccb/index.html. Cited 04 Aug 2013

  • Wang Q (2013) China has the capacity to lead in carbon trading. Nature 493:273

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wara M (2008) Measuring the Clean Development Mechanism’s performance and potential. UCLA legal Rev 55(6):1759–1803

    Google Scholar 

  • Wooldridge JM (2003) Introductory econometrics: a modern approach. South-Western College Pub, Australia

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (2011) A guide to the World Bank. World Bank, Washington, DC

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Yang H, Feng S, Gao H et al (2010) Clean Development Mechanism in China: five years of experience (2004–2009) . World Bank, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Wang C (2011) Co-benefits and additionality of the Clean Development Mechanism: an empirical analysis. J Environ Econ Manag 62:140–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu J (2012) The correlated factors of the uneven performances of the CDM host countries. Environ Res Lett 7. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014015

  • Zhu J (2013) Assessing China’s discriminative tax on Clean Development Mechanism projects, does China’s tax have so many functions? J Environ Plan Manag. doi:10.1080/09640568.2012.750236

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhu J, Tang Y (2012) The design flaw of the displacement principle of Clean Development Mechanism: the neglect of electricity shortage. Eur J Law Econ. doi:10.1007/s10657-012-9374-8

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Law School, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 14850, USA

    Jinshan Zhu

  2. Department of Planning and Development, China Huaneng Group, No.6 Fuxingmen Neidajie, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100031, People’s Republic of China

    Hui Yao

  3. Business School, Sichuan University, SKJC 201007, Wangjiang Road, Chengdu, 610064, Sichuan, China

    Yingkai Tang

  4. School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics, 39 South College Road, Haidian District, Beijing, People’s Republic of China, 100081

    Liyong Wang

Authors
  1. Jinshan Zhu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Hui Yao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yingkai Tang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Liyong Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Liyong Wang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Zhu, J., Yao, H., Tang, Y. et al. An econometric analysis of sub-national Clean Development Mechanism performance in China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 20, 1137–1153 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9525-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9525-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation