Abstract
This study provides guidelines for strategic management in industrial oil plants linked to uncertainties of climate change through the development of integrated planning methodology with focus on coastal flooding events caused by relative sea level rise (RSLR). The research site is in Redonda Island, located in Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro City, Brazil, and since 1960, it constitutes an industrial oil plant facility. The region suffers interaction with storms and meteorological tides from extratropical cyclones over the South Atlantic Ocean, being vulnerable to risks of disasters, floods, and coastal erosion. A Program on Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments to Relative Sea Level Rise (“Programa de Avaliação e Adaptação às Vulnerabilidades de Elevação do Nível Relativo do Mar—PAAVENRM”) was developed to avoid compromising the regional and local development in the industrial system of the island, which is an ad hoc instrument designed to anticipate and reduce risks, damages, and losses by occurrence of extreme climatic events in coastal areas prone to flooding caused by RSLR. Results from computer simulation modeling indicate 37 prospective qualitative scenarios that consolidate the conditions of future climate vulnerability of the plant, starting from United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) information for RSLR up to 2100. Three quantitative forecasting scenarios were simulated, under boundary conditions preset for different altimetric ranges subject to submersion, based upon ordinary and extraordinary tides measured in the area in relation to RSLR, which allowed the evaluation of the industrial infrastructure at risk. Furthermore, three thematic maps were elaborated for the planning of specific coastal protection interventions. Percentages of physical damage and property losses were estimated. The importance of applying guidelines for medium and long-term corporate strategy management, integrating the risk of flooding, the rigging of civil defense systems, meteorology, and of the plans, programs, and existing systems and others to be developed is highlighted. From this perspective, the proposed scenarios help to identify the most relevant alternatives for mitigation and adaptation under technical criteria for decision making in the study area.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abel N, Gorddard R, Harman LA, Langridge J, Ryan A, Heyenga S (2011) Sea level rise, coastal development and planned retreat: analytical framework, governance principles and an Australian case study. Environ Sci Pol 14:279–288
Amador ES (1997) Baía de Guanabara e ecossistemas periféricos: Homem e natureza. Rio de Janeiro
Andrade ESM (2012) Geração hidrelétrica no Nordeste: Risco empresarial e ambiental para o setor elétrico brasileiro 214 f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências em Planejamento Energético), UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, COPPE/PPE
Ansoff HI, Mc Donnell EJ (1993) Implantando a administração estratégica, 2nd edn. Atlas, São Paulo
Babu D, Sivalingan S, Machado T (2012) Need for adaptation strategy against global sea level rise: an example from Saudi coast of Arabian gulf. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Chang 17:821–836
Beckhard R, Harris RT (1987) Organizacional transitions: managing complex change. Addison-Wesley, Reading
Cameron E, Green M (2009) Gerenciamento de mudanças. Clio Editora, São Paulo
Carter RWG (1988) Coastal environments, an introduction to the physical ecological and cultural systems of coastlines. Academic, London
RIMA—Relatório de Impacto Ambiental (2007) Instalação do Terminal Aquaviário da Ilha Comprida, Adaptações do Terminal Aquaviário da Ilha Redonda e Dutos de GLP na Baía de Guanabara. Mineral Engenharia e Meio Ambiente Ltda
Franco FL (2007) Prospectiva estratégica: uma metodologia para a construção do futuro. Tese (Doutorado em Engenharia de Produção), UFRJ, COPPE/PEP
Gibbons S, Nicholls R (2006) Island abandonment and sea-level rise: an historical analog from the Chesapeake Bay. USA Global Environmental Change 16:40–47
Glenn JC (1994) Scenarios, futures research methodology, V 2.0. AC/UNU, Millennium Project
Godet M, (colaboradores) Monti R, Meunier F, Roubelat F (2000) A caixa de ferramentas da prospectiva estratégica. Cadernos do CEPES, Lisboa: Ed. CEPES. Disponível em:<http://www.idestur.org.br/dowload/20080615095245.pdf>Acesso em: 04 fevereiro 2013
Godet M, Arcade J, Meunier F, Roubelat F (2000b) The art of scenario and strategic planning. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 65:3–22
Gordon TJ, Glenn JC (2004) Integration, comparisons, and frontier of futures research methods. New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Sevilha
Grumbach RJS, Marcial EC (2008) Cenários prospectivos: como construir um futuro melhor, 5th edn. FGV, Rio de Janeiro
Hallegate S (2009) Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Glob Environ Chang 21:240–247
IBGE (2012) Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (http://www.ibge.gob.br/estadossat/perfil.php?sigla=rj) Acesso em 05 fevereiro 2013
INPE & NEPO (2011) Projeto megacidades, vulnerabilidades e mudanças climáticas. Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro e as vulnerabilidades às mudanças climáticas
IPCC (2001) Climate change the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 881 pp
IPPC (2007) Climate change: the physical science basis—a report of working group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—summary for policymakers. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 18
Lodi JB (1969) Estratégia de negócios: planejamento em longo prazo. Revista de Administração de Empresas, Rio de Janeiro: FGV v. 9, n. 1, p. 5–32, março
McGranahan G, Balk D, Anderson B (2007) The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones environments. Environ Urban 19(1):17–37
Michel K et al (1990) Esboço de um programa de desenvolvimento administrativo intrafirma para a administração estratégica. In: Do planejamento estratégico à administração estratégica. Atlas, São Paulo, pp 252–271
Molua E (2009) Accommodation of climate change in coastal areas of Cameron: selection of household-level protections options. Mitig Adapt Strat Glog Chang 14:721–735
Muehe D, Neves CF (2008) Vulnerabilidades físicas da orla. In: Gusmão PP, Carmo OS,Vianna SB 2008. Rio, Próximos 100 anos. IPP/SMU, Rio de Janeiro
Nicolodi J, Peterman R (2010) Climate changes and vulnerability of the Brazilian coastal zone in its environmental, social, and technological aspects. Journal of Integrated Coastal Zone Management 10(2):151–177
Pethick J (2001) Coastal management and sea-level rise. Catena 42:307–322
Pfeiffer T, Schmidt R (2005) Managing change: quality-oriented design of strategic change process. TQM Mag 17(4):297
Prefeitura da Cidade do Rio de Janeiro (http://www.rj.gov.br/web/smds/defesacivil) Acesso em 06 fevereiro 2013
Ramasamy SM, Kumann CJ, Saravanavel J, Rajawat AS, Tamilarasan VA (2010) Geomatics based analysis of predicted sea level rise and its impacts in parts of Tamil Nadu coast, India. J Indian Soc Rem Sens 38(4):640–653
Rannow S, Loibl W, Greiving S, Gruehn D, Meyer BC (2010) Potencial impacts of climate change in Germany—identifying regional priorities for adaptation activities in special planning. Landsc Urban Plann 98:160–171
Rice J, Moss R, Runci P, Anderson K (2012) Incorporating stakeholders decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model. Mitig Adapt Strat Glog Chang 17:805–819
Roberto M, Levesque L (2005) The art of making change initiatives stick. Sloan management review
Rosman PCC (Coord.), Cunha C, Feitosa RC (2010). A ciência das ondas gigantes da Baía de Guanabara. espaçoSigma, COPPE, UFRJ (http://www.espacosigma-foco.scire.coppe.ufrj.br/referencesias.htm) Acesso em 26 outubro 2010
Santos CL, Silva MAM, Salvador MVS (2004) Dinâmica sazonal e os efeitos das ressacas nas praias de Niterói/RJ. Revista Brasileira de Geociência 34(3):355–360, setembro
Schwartz S, Yaffe J, Goldblatt J, Silvers JR (2000) Risk management: financial, legal and ethical safeguards. The George Washington University Workbook, School of Business and Public Management, Washington, DC
Snoussi M, Ouchani T, Niazi S (2008) Vulnerability assessment of the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on the Moroccan coast: the case of the Mediterranean eastern zone. Estuarine Coastal Shelf Sci 77:206–213
Todnem R (2007) Ready or not. J Chang Manag 7(1):3–11
Tucci C (2007) Inundações Urbanas. Porto Alegre: ABRH/RHAMA
van Vuuren D, Isaac M, Kundzewicz Z, Arnell N, Barker T, Criqui P, Berkhout F, Hilderenk H, Hinkel J, Hof A, Kitous A, Kram T, Mecher R, Scrieciu S (2011) The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate. Glob Environ Chang 575–591
Wright A (2005) The role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices. Manag Decis 43(1):86–101
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lacerda, G.B.M., Silva, C., Pimenteira, C.A.P. et al. Guidelines for the strategic management of flood risks in industrial plant oil in the Brazilian coast: adaptive measures to the impacts by relative sea level rise. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 19, 1041–1062 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9459-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9459-x