Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A little REDD model to quickly compare possible baseline and policy scenarios for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A simple model allows rapid comparison of typical baseline and policy scenarios which might be considered under international programs to avoid CO2 emissions caused by forest clearing, such as REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation). These tests of REDD policy scenarios can also include CO2 stored in forest products. The value of avoided emissions can also be determined if expected carbon prices, constant or varying, are included. The paper discusses simple illustrative example comparisons as well as possible feedback effects within larger scale setting of CO2 offset availability, CO2 price and emissions reductions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Other important greenhouse gasses include methane, nitrous oxide and certain fluorinated gasses. Water vapor, also a greenhouse gas, increases as atmospheric tempertures rise—a positive feedback.

  2. REDD in the Bali document stands for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries, but later the meaning of the DD morphed into Deforestation and Forest Degradation. Some authors use the term REDDD to include both ideas.

  3. Not discussed here is the additional, possible, limitation referred to as a ‘crediting baseline’ which could further limit carbon payments (Angelsen 2008b).

  4. The definition of forest is left to the user.

  5. The models can be run with the free Vensim model reader, or a free version of the software, both available at www.vensim.com. The model is available from the author.

  6. In replanting/ regeneration scenarios we assume that the trees are harvested for a purpose, and thus assume that tree and carbon removal is done by removing older ‘trees’. This in turn requires a modification of the model whereby carbon loss is not via removal of average carbon per ha, but via removal at a rate comparable to removal of areas of forest with the age equal to the rotation time. See model for further information.

  7. This excludes immediate burning, or conversion, of biomass for energy which could have CO2 benefits via the replacement of oil products used for these purposes.

  8. Variable carbon prices can be implemented in the model, but are not used in the examples.

  9. This is a subset of the concept of payments for ecosystem services (PES).

References

  • Angelsen A (2008a) How do we set the reference levels for REDD payments? In: Angelsen A (ed) Moving ahead with REDD: issues, options and implications. CIFOR, Bogor

    Google Scholar 

  • Angelsen A (ed) (2008b) Moving ahead with REDD: issues, options and implications. CIFOR, Bogor

    Google Scholar 

  • Anon (2008) Fact sheet: reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries: approaches to stimulate action. UNFCC, Bali

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown S, Achard F, Braatz B, Csiszar I, DeFries R, Frederici S, Grassi G, Harris N, Herold M, Mollicone D, Pandey D, Pearson T, Shoch D, Souza C (2008) Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and degradation in developing countries: a sourcebook of methods and procedures for monitoring, measuring and reporting, GOFC-GOLD, www.fao.org/gtos/gofc-gold/

  • Cacho OJ, Wise RM, MacDicken KG (2004) Carbon monitoring costs and their effect on incentives to sequester carbon through forestry. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 9:273–293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harmon ME, Ferrell WK, Franklin JF (1990) Effects on carbon storage of conversion of old-growth forests to young forests. Science 247:699–702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanninen M, Murdiyarso D, Seymour F, Angelsen A, Wunder S, German L (2007) Do trees grow on money?: the implications of deforestation research for policies to promote REDD, 4. Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Bogor

    Google Scholar 

  • Kurz WA, Dymond CC, White TM, Stinson G, Shaw CH, Rampley GJ, Smyth C, Simpson BN, Neilson ET, Trofymow JA, Metsaranta J, Apps MJ (2009) CBM-CFS3: a model of carbon-dynamics in forestry and land-use change implementing IPCC standards. Ecological Modelling 220:480–504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Livengood E, Dixon A (2009) REDD and the effort to limit global warming to 2°C: Implications for including REDD credits in the international carbon market, KEA 3 Limited / Greenpeace

  • Miner R (2006) The 100-year method for forecasting carbon sequestration in forest products in use. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 2006

  • Mollicone D, Freibauer A, Schulze ED, Braatz S, Grassi G, Federici S (2007) Elements for the expected mechanisms on 'reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation, REDD' under UNFCCC. Environmental Research Letters:045024

  • Okereke C, Dooley K (2009) Principles of justice in proposals and policy approaches to avoided deforestation: towards a post-Kyoto climate agreement. Global Environmental Change In Press, Corrected Proof

  • Peskett L, Harkin Z (2007) Risk and responsibility in reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation. Overseas Development Institute, Forest Policy and Environment Programme

    Google Scholar 

  • Pirard R, Karsenty A (2009) Climate change mitigation: should "avoided deforestation" (REDD) be rewarded? Journal of Sustainable Forestry 28:3–4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Putz FE, Zuidema PA, Pinard MA, Boot RGA, Sayer JA, Sheil D, Sist P, Vanclay JK (2008) Improved tropical forest management for carbon retention. PLoS Biology 6:e166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rights and Resources Initiative (2008) Seeing people through the trees: scaling up efforts to advance rights and address poverty. Conflict and Climate Change, RRI, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Rudel TK, Coomes OT, Moran E, Achard F, Angelsen A, Xu J, Lambin E (2005) Forest transitions: towards a global understanding of land use change. Global Environmental Change 15:23–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skog KE, Nicholson G (1998) Carbon cycling through wood products: the role of wood and paper products in carbon sequestration. Forest Products Journal 48:75–83

    Google Scholar 

  • Skog KE, Pingoud K, Smith JE (2004) A method countries can use to estimate changes in carbon stored in harvested wood products and the uncertainty of such estimates. Environmental Management 33:65–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sterman JD (2000) Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Boston

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 21 Etna Lane, Box 280, Etna, New York, 13062-1280, USA

    Richard G. Dudley

Authors
  1. Richard G. Dudley
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Richard G. Dudley.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Dudley, R.G. A little REDD model to quickly compare possible baseline and policy scenarios for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 15, 53–69 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-009-9204-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-009-9204-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation