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The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND

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Abstract

This paper studies the effects of adaptation and mitigation on the impacts of sea level rise. Without adaptation, the impact of sea level rise would be substantial, almost wiping out entire countries by 2100, although the globally aggregate effect is much smaller. Adaptation would reduce potential impacts by a factor 10–100. Adaptation would come at a minor cost compared to the damage avoided. As adaptation depends on socio-economic status, the rank order of most vulnerable countries is different than the rank order of most exposed countries. Because the momentum of sea level rise is so large, mitigation can reduce impacts only to a limited extent. Stabilising carbon dioxide concentrations at 550 ppm would cut impacts in 2100 by about 10%. However, the costs of emission reduction lower the avoided impacts by up to 25% (average 10%). This is partly due to the reduced availability of resources for adaptation, and partly due to the increased sensitivity to wetland loss by adaptation.

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Notes

  1. I phrase climate policy in terms of cost–benefit analysis. There are of course also other ways of interpreting policy. However, adaptation and mitigation are necessarily substitutes in climate policy, regardless of how one looks at it. Note that adaptation cannot fully replace mitigation or vice versa; the climate policy portfolio should contain both adaptation and mitigation. Finally, note that adaptation is impossible for some systems, particularly some ecosystems; there, mitigation is the only alternative.

  2. Note that the same trade-off holds for the long-term, but that mitigation is more potent and adaptation, perhaps, less effective. Note also that impact analyses seldom go beyond 2100, even though sea level rise will not stop then.

  3. Monosyllabic acronyms rule.

  4. That is, the version with 16 regions rather than 207 countries.

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Acknowledgements

Comments by three anonymous referees and discussions with Robert Nicholls helped improve this paper. The CEC DG Research Fifth Framework Programme through the DINAS-Coast project (EVK2-2000-22024), the US National Science Foundation through the Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change (SBR-9521914) and the Michael Otto Foundation for Environmental Protection provided welcome financial support. All errors and opinions are mine.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Economic and Social Research Institute, Hamburg, Germany

    Richard S. J. Tol

  2. Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Richard S. J. Tol

  3. Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA

    Richard S. J. Tol

  4. Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin, 2, Ireland

    Richard S. J. Tol

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Correspondence to Richard S. J. Tol.

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Tol, R.S.J. The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 12, 741–753 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-007-9097-2

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