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Mapping basin-wide subaquatic slope failure susceptibility as a tool to assess regional seismic and tsunami hazards

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Abstract

This study of subaquatic slope failures in Lake Lucerne, central Switzerland, presents a new concept for evaluating basin-wide slope stability through time as a potential tool for regional seismic and tsunami hazard assessments. Previously acquired high-resolution bathymetry and reflection seismic data, as well as sedimentological and in situ geotechnical data, provide a comprehensive data base to use this lake as a “model basin” to investigate subaquatic landslides and related geohazards. Available data are implemented into a basin-wide slope model. In a Geographic Information System (GIS)-framework, a pseudo-static limit equilibrium infinite slope stability equation is solved for each model point representing reconstructed slope conditions at different times in the past, during which earthquake-triggered landslides occurred. Comparison of reconstructed critical stability conditions with the known distribution of landslide deposits reveals minimum and maximum threshold conditions for slopes that failed or remained stable, respectively. The resulting correlations reveal good agreements and suggest that the slope stability model generally succeeds in reproducing past events. The basin-wide mapping of subaquatic slope failure susceptibility through time thus can also be considered as a promising paleoseismologic tool. Furthermore, it can be used to assess the present-day slope failure susceptibility, allowing for identification of location and estimation of size of future, potentially tsunamigenic subaquatic landslides.

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Acknowledgments

Bathymetric data were collected with an instrument from the Geological Survey of Norway (NGU); we thank Louise Hansen, Raymond Eilertsen and Oddbjørn Totland for their support in this bathymetry project, which was sponsored by the Swiss Confederation (swisstopo, FOEN, DDPS) and the Canton of Nidwalden. A. J. Kopf, A. Solheim and D. Giardini are acknowledged for discussion and critically commenting on earlier drafts of this manuscript. Comments by editors Peter Clift and Antonio Cattaneo, as well as two anonymous reviews improved the initial version of this manuscript. The study was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant 620-066113 and PBEZ2-118865) and the DFG-Research Centre/Cluster of Excellence “The Ocean in the Earth System”.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. MARUM, Centre for Marine and Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

    Michael Strasser

  2. Geological Institute, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland

    Michael Strasser

  3. Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Department of Surface Waters, Dübendorf, Switzerland

    Michael Hilbe & Flavio S. Anselmetti

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  1. Michael Strasser
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  2. Michael Hilbe
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Correspondence to Michael Strasser.

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Strasser, M., Hilbe, M. & Anselmetti, F.S. Mapping basin-wide subaquatic slope failure susceptibility as a tool to assess regional seismic and tsunami hazards. Mar Geophys Res 32, 331–347 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11001-010-9100-2

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