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Can microclimate offer refuge to an upland bird species under climate change?

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Abstract

Context

Climate change is a severe threat to biodiversity. Areas with a high variety of microclimates may provide opportunities for species to persist in a changing climate.

Objectives

Test the extent to which microclimate is an important determinant of the distribution of a widespread upland passerine, the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis, and whether microclimate becomes an increasingly important determinant of distribution towards the warm edge of the species’ range.

Methods

We used models of the occurrence of meadow pipits based on data from an extensive survey to identify macroclimate and topographic associations, the latter as proxies of microclimate. We assessed magnitude and direction of the effects of microclimate and whether the magnitude of microclimate effects increases as macroclimate suitability declines.

Results

The probability of meadow pipit occurrence is significantly correlated with macroclimate and microclimate. Microclimate accounts for about a third of the variation in occupancy probability and has a stronger effect than macroclimate at all three spatial scales considered. Elevation and topographical wetness index are positively correlated with meadow pipit occurrence, while insolation is negatively correlated. Elevation and macroclimate suitability show a positive interaction, while insolation and macroclimate suitability show a negative interaction.

Conclusions

Microclimate substantially influences the distribution of the meadow pipit. For high latitude and upland species such as this, suitable areas on cool slopes could form the focus for conservation protection, as these areas are likely to become increasingly utilised and may remain the only locations occupied in otherwise unsuitable climate.

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Acknowledgments

The analysis of this work was funded by Natural England, whilst the production of this paper was funded by the British Trust for Ornithology, with further support from Natural England. The UK data used originated from the Breeding Bird Survey, a Partnership jointly funded by the British Trust for Ornithology, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds and Joint Nature Conservation Committee, with fieldwork conducted by volunteers, to whom we are very grateful. We should also like to thank Alison Johnston for her analytical advice and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Thetford, IP24 2PU, UK

    Dario Massimino & James W. Pearce-Higgins

  2. Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, York, YO10 5DD, UK

    Colin M. Beale & Andrew J. Suggitt

  3. Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, TR10 9FE, UK

    Andrew J. Suggitt & Ilya M. D. Maclean

  4. Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, NE1 8ST, UK

    Andrew J. Suggitt

  5. Natural England, Eastbrook, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge, CB2 8DR, UK

    Humphrey Q. P. Crick & Nicholas A. Macgregor

  6. Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology (DICE), School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, CT2 7NR, UK

    Nicholas A. Macgregor

  7. RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL, UK

    Matthew J. Carroll

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  1. Dario Massimino
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Massimino, D., Beale, C.M., Suggitt, A.J. et al. Can microclimate offer refuge to an upland bird species under climate change?. Landscape Ecol 35, 1907–1922 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-01069-7

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