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Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China

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Abstract

Context

Subtropical forests have and will continue to face tremendous pressure from various disturbances, which have the potential to alter forest composition, structure, and function. Forest dynamics relate to spatial patterns, ecological processes, and their interactions. However, integrating forest ecosystems and land systems has seldom been attempted in southern China.

Objectives

We explore the spatiotemporal response and trajectories of forest dynamics at different scales under climate change, harvesting, and land-use disturbances in the near future.

Methods

We simulated forest landscape dynamics by integrating a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II), an ecosystem model (PnET-II), and a land change model (CA-Markov) for 2010 to 2050. We identified changes in forest composition, aboveground biomass, and landscape patterns under individual and integrated scenarios, including a control scenario, climate change, harvesting, and land-use change for tree species, ecoregions, and forest types.

Results

For forest composition, the forest area continued to increase, and coniferous forests increased approximately 3.7 times that of broad-leaved forests. Harvesting reduced aboveground biomass, with a reduction of 30.3% in comparison to the control scenario. The integrated disturbances showed a greater impact on the forest landscape. Landscape fragmentation increased, showing that the patch density increased by 52.3% (control scenario), 46.2% (climate change), 118.4% (harvest), 55.0% (land use change) and 139.5% (integrated scenarios), respectively.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that climate change will contribute to forest growth, especially for coniferous forests. Harvesting will reduce forest area and aboveground biomass. The interaction between human activities and climate change contributes to diminished forest expansion and increased landscape fragmentation.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to acknowledge the anonymous reviewers and the editor who provided constructive advice for this manuscript. This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41801068 and 41771097), the Forestry Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong (Grant No. 2018KJCX013), and the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (Grant No. 2015CB452702).

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  1. School of Geographical Sciences, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center, No. 230 Wai Huan Xi Road, Guangzhou, 510006, People’s Republic of China

    Zhuo Wu, Zhifeng Wu & Meizhen Lin

  2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, People’s Republic of China

    Erfu Dai

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  1. Zhuo Wu
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Wu, Z., Dai, E., Wu, Z. et al. Future forest dynamics under climate change, land use change, and harvest in subtropical forests in Southern China. Landscape Ecol 34, 843–863 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-019-00809-8

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