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Multi-detection events, probability density functions, and reduced location area

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Abstract

Several efforts have been made in the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) community to assess the benefits of combining detections of radionuclides to improve the location estimates available from atmospheric transport modeling (ATM) backtrack calculations. We present a Bayesian estimation approach rather than a simple dilution field of regard approach to allow xenon detections and non-detections to be combined mathematically. This system represents one possible probabilistic approach to radionuclide event formation. Application of this method to a recent interesting radionuclide event shows a substantial reduction in the location uncertainty of that event.

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Acknowledgments

The authors also wish to acknowledge the funding support of the U.S. Department of State and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Boulevard, MSIN K7-76, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA, 99352, USA

    Paul W. Eslinger

  2. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 902 Battelle Boulevard, MSIN J4-65, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA, 99352, USA

    Brian T. Schrom

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  1. Paul W. Eslinger
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  2. Brian T. Schrom
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Correspondence to Paul W. Eslinger.

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Eslinger, P.W., Schrom, B.T. Multi-detection events, probability density functions, and reduced location area. J Radioanal Nucl Chem 307, 1599–1605 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10967-015-4339-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10967-015-4339-3

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