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An analytical algorithm for designing radon monitoring network to predict the location and magnitude of earthquakes

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Abstract

Continuous radon monitoring in soil and groundwater is one of the useful methods in earthquake prediction process. There are many published studies on geochemical precursors to seismic activity, both reporting the detection of validated precursory phenomena. The research on geochemical precursory algorithms is aimed at defining quantitative relations between seismogenic parameters and endogenetic components. This paper presents a new analytical algorithm that can be used to estimate optimum location and magnitude of coming earthquakes based on variations in radon concentration or any other geochemical precursors. In a real life application of this algorithm, radon monitoring network for Kerman province has been designed and the resulting data have been investigated. This practical example corroborates the proposed algorithm as well and the resulting seismogenic parameters e.g. location and magnitude have been obtained within their acceptable ranges. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm emphasizes on hot-springs which have the most effect on results around target zone.

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Notes

  1. International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth’s Interior (www.iaspei.org).

  2. International Institute of Earthquake Engineering & Seismology (www.iiees.ac.ir).

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Acknowledgments

The authors are extremely grateful to Dr. Alireza Ahmadi & Mr. Ehsan Mehrabi-Kermani for editing text & Mr. Mohsen Bagheri for his guides in drawing figures.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Kerman Graduate University of Technology (KGUT), End of 7bagh Highway, Mahan Knowledge Paradise, P.O. Box 76315-115, Kerman, Iran

    S. Mehdi Hashemi, Ali Negarestani & Mojtaba Namvaran

  2. Islamic Azad University, Kerman Branch, Kerman, Iran

    S. M. Musavi Nasab

Authors
  1. S. Mehdi Hashemi
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  2. Ali Negarestani
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  3. Mojtaba Namvaran
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  4. S. M. Musavi Nasab
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Correspondence to S. Mehdi Hashemi.

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Hashemi, S.M., Negarestani, A., Namvaran, M. et al. An analytical algorithm for designing radon monitoring network to predict the location and magnitude of earthquakes. J Radioanal Nucl Chem 295, 2249–2262 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10967-012-2310-0

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