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New Zealand chironomids as proxies for human-induced and natural environmental change: Transfer functions for temperature and lake production (chlorophyll a)

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Abstract

The analysis of chironomid taxa and environmental datasets from 46 New Zealand lakes identified temperature (February mean air temperature) and lake production (chlorophyll a (Chl a)) as the main drivers of chironomid distribution. Temperature was the strongest driver of chironomid distribution and consequently produced the most robust inference models. We present two possible temperature transfer functions from this dataset. The most robust model (weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS), n = 36) was based on a dataset with the most productive (Chl a > 10 µg l−1) lakes removed. This model produced a coefficient of determination (\(r^{2}_{\rm jack}\)) of 0.77, and a root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEPjack) of 1.31°C. The Chl a transfer function (partial least squares (PLS), n = 37) was far less reliable, with an \(r^{2}_{\rm jack}\) of 0.49 and an RMSEPjack of 0.46 Log10µg l−1. Both of these transfer functions could be improved by a revision of the taxonomy for the New Zealand chironomid taxa, particularly the genus Chironomus. The Chironomus morphotype was common in high altitude, cool, oligotrophic lakes and lowland, warm, eutrophic lakes. This could reflect the widespread distribution of one eurythermic species, or the collective distribution of a number of different Chironomus species with more limited tolerances. The Chl a transfer function could also be improved by inputting mean Chl a values into the inference model rather than the spot measurements that were available for this study.

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Acknowledgements

Financial support for this work came from Marsden contract UOC301 and the Mason Scientific and Technical Trust (Department of Geological Sciences, University of Canterbury). Dr Michael Reid kindly supplied surface sediment samples and water chemistry data from his New Zealand diatom training set. Dr Ian Boothroyd provided valuable assistance with the taxonomy of New Zealand chironomids. We also thank Marcus Vandergoes (based at the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine) for generous support, guidance, as well as invaluable discussions on everything ranging from taxonomy to fieldwork logistics. Completion of this project would not have been possible without the support of many people in the field (including the New Zealand Department of Conservation), and the various land owners that provided access to the lakes situated on private land. Input from Peter Langdon and an anonymous reviewer greatly contributed to the quality of the final manuscript.

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    C. A. Woodward & J. Shulmeister

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Correspondence to C. A. Woodward.

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Table 4 List of Chironomid taxa enumerated in this study
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Woodward, C.A., Shulmeister, J. New Zealand chironomids as proxies for human-induced and natural environmental change: Transfer functions for temperature and lake production (chlorophyll a). J Paleolimnol 36, 407–429 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-006-9009-6

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