Skip to main content
Log in

Association of Near-Miss with Two Erroneous Gambling Cognitions and Betting Intention: Evidence from Nigerian Adolescents

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Journal of Gambling Studies Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Evidences show increase of positive attitudes of Nigerian adolescents towards gambling in the past decade. Nigerian adolescents have been shown to spend significant part of their academic time and resources on Soccer bets. This behaviour could act as a predisposing factor for poor academic performances and problem gambling at adulthood. The present study drew from the cognitive distortion model to examine the mediational role of near-miss in the erroneous cognition-betting intention association through a survey study design. Male adolescents (N = 237; Mean age = 17.37 years; SD = 4.13) of public schools in Nigeria who engage in Soccer betting took part in the study. They completed self-report measures of erroneous cognition, near-miss and betting intention. Results revealed that interpretative bias was not associated with near-miss while it was positively associated with betting intention. Illusion of control was positively associated with near-miss and betting intention. Near-miss was positively associated with betting intention and mediated the associations between interpretative bias and betting intention (negative mediation) and illusion of control, and betting intention (positive mediation). The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

taken from the first regression whereas the weighted beta values taken from the second regression are pointing to betting intention

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abbott, M., Stone, C. A., Billi, R., & Yeung, K. (2014). Gambling and problem gambling in Pretoria, Australia: Changes over 5 years. Journal of Gambling Studies, 32, 47–78.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aboagye, E., & Yawson, J. A. (2020). Beliefs about the consequences of the establishment of betting terminals on attendance and the promotion of youth’s gambling. Social Education Research, 1(11), 11–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Akinsanmi, G. (2015). Lagos prosecutes 50 illegal lottery operators. ThisDay live. Archived from the original on 17 November 2015. Retrieved 23rd April, 2019.

  • Alexa.com (2018). Top sites in Nigeria. Alexa Page Rank. Retrieved 23rd April, 2019.

  • Arcan, K., & Karanci, A. N. (2013). Adaptation study of the Turkish version of the Gambling-Related Cognitions Scale (GRCS-T). Journal of Gambling Studies, 29(2), 10–23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-013-9414-5.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Armstrong, T., Rocklof, M., Browne, M., & Blaszczynski, A. (2019a). Encouraging gamblers to think critically using generalized analytical priming is ineffective at reducing gambling biases. Journal of Gambling Studies. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-019-09910-8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Armstrong, T., Rocklof, M., Browne, M., & Blaszczynski, A. (2019b). Beliefs about gambling mediate the effect of cognitive style on gambling problems (unpublished manuscript).

  • Armstrong, T., Rovkloff, M., & Browne, M. (2020). Gamble with your head and not your heart: A conceptual model for how thinking-style promotes irrational gambling beliefs. Journal of Gambling Studies, 36, 183–206. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-019-09927-z.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Awo, L. O. (2020). Counterfactual thinking and near-miss effects on bet9ja intentions: moderating role of gambling-related cognition. Doctoral thesis proposal presented to the Department of Psychology, Faculty of the Social Sciences, University of Nigeria, Nsukka.

  • Awo, L. O., Amazue, L. O., & Nwonyi, S. K. (2020). Erroneous cognition and gambling intention of youths. Nigerian Journal of Psychological Research, 16(2), 82–88.

    Google Scholar 

  • Balodis, S. R. S., Thomas, A. C., & Moore, S. M. (2014). Sensitivity to reward and punishment: Horse race and EGM gamblers compared. Personality and Individual Differences, 56, 29–33.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Banks, P. J., Tata, S. M., Bennett, P. J., Sekuler, A. B., & Gruber, A. J. (2018). Implicit valuation of the near-miss is dependent on outcome context. Journal Gambling Studies, 34, 181–197. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-017-9705-3.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barton, K. R., Yazdani, Y., Ayer, N., Kalvapalle, S., Brown, S., Stapleton, J., et al. (2017). The effects of losses disguised as wins and near misses in electronic gaming machines: A systematic review. Journal of Gambling Studies, 33, 1241–1260.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Blaszczynski, A., & Nower, L. (2007). Research and measurement issues in gambling studies: Etiological models. In G. Smith, D. C. Hodgins, & R. Williams (Eds.), Research and measurement issues in gambling studies. Burlington, MA: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blinn-Pike, L., Worthy, S. L., & Jonkman, J. N. (2010). Adolescent gambling: A review of an emerging field of research. Journal of Adolescent Health, 47, 223–236.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camfield, L. (2011). Quality of life in developing countries. Handbook of Social Indicators and Quality of Life Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2421.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clark, L., Crooks, B., Clarke, R., Aitken, M. R. F., & Dunn, B. D. (2011). Physiological responses to near-miss outcomes and personal control during simulated gambling. Journal of Gambling Studies, 28(1), 123–137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-011-9247-z.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cosenza, M., & Nigro, G. (2015). Wagering the future: Cognitive distortions, impulsivity, delay discounting, and time perspective in adolescent gambling. Journal of Adolescents, 45, 56–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.adolescence.2015.08.015.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cowie, M. E., Stewart, S. H., Salmon, J., Collins, P., Al-Hamdani, M., Boffo, M., et al. (2017). Distorted beliefs about luck and skill and their relation to gambling problems and gambling behaviour in Dutch gamblers. Frontiers in Psychology, 8(2245), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.02245.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delfabbro, P., Georgiou, N., Malvaso, C., & King, D. (2020). Is self-reported propensity for everyday illusions of control higher in gamblers and is it associated with gambling-specific erroneous beliefs? SAGE Open, 10(1), 2158244019899436.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delfabbro, P., & Winefield, A. (2000). Predictors of irrational thinking in regular slot machine gamblers. The Journal of Psychology, 134(2), 117–128.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Devos, G., Clark, L., Maurage, P., Kazimierczuk, M., & Billieux, J. (2015). Reduced inhibitory control predicts persistence in laboratory slot machine gambling. International Gambling Studies, 15(3), 408–421. https://doi.org/10.1080/14459795.2015.1068351.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donati, M. A., Chiesi, F., Iozzi, A., Manfredi, A., Fagni, F., & Primi, C. (2018). Gambling-related distortions and problem gambling in adolescents: A model to explain mechanisms and develop interventions. Frontiers of Psychology, 8, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.02243.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enwereuzor, I. K., Ugwu, L. I., & Ugwu, D. I. (2016). Role of smartphone addiction in gambling passion and schoolwork engagement: A dualistic model of passion approach. Asian Jounal of Gambling Issues and Public Health, 6(9), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40405-016-0018-8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gainsbury, S. M., Russel, A., Hung, N., Wood, R., Lubman, D. I., & Blasczcynski, A. (2014). The prevalence and determinant of problem gambling in Australia: Assessing the impact of interactive gambling and new technologies. Psychology of Addictive Behaviour, 28, 769–779.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goodie, A., & Fortune, E. (2013). Measuring cognitive distortions in pathological gambling: Review and meta-analyses. Psychology of Addictive Behaviour, 27, 730–743. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0031892.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanss, D., Mentzoni, R., Blaszczynski, A., Molde, H., Torsheim, T., & Pallesen, S. (2014). Prevalence and correlates of problem gambling in a representative sample of Norwegian 17-year olds. Journal of Gambling Studies. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-014-9455-4.

    Article  PubMed Central  Google Scholar 

  • Harrigan, K. (2008). Slot machine structural characteristics: Creating near misses using high award symbol ratios. International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction, 6, 353–368.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayes, A. F. (2009). Beyond Baron and Kenny: Statistical mediation analysis in the new millennium. Communication Monographs, 76(4), 408–420. https://doi.org/10.1080/03637750903310360.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayes, A. F., & Preacher, K. J. (2010). Quantifying and testing indirect effects in simple mediation models when the constituent paths are nonlinear. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 45(4), 627–660. https://doi.org/10.1080/00273171.2010.498290.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Horton, K., Turner, N., & Horbay, R. (2006). Do weighted reels on a slot machine distort a gambler’s judgment of probability? The effect of near misses. Guelph, ON: Ontario Problem Gambling Research Centre.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ladouceur, R. (2004). Perceptions among pathological and non-pathological gamblers. Addictive Behaviors, 29, 555–565.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ladouceur, R., & Walker, M. (1996). A cognitive perspective on gambling. In P. M. Salkovskis (Ed.), Trends in cognitive and behavioural therapies. New York, NY: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lole, T., Torsheimo, T., Pallesen, S., Blasczcynski, A., Sage, D., & Molde, H. (2014). An empirical real-world study of losses disguised as wins in electronic gaming machines. International Gambling Studies, 16(3), 470–480.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lostutter, T. W., Lewis, M. A., Cronce, J. M., Neighbors, C., & Larimer, M. E. (2012). The use of protective behaviors in relation to gambling among college students. Journal of Gambling Studies. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-012-9343-8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McBride, J., & Derevensky, J. (2009). Internet gambling behavior in a sample of online gamblers. International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction, 7(1), 149–167. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11469-008-9169-x.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitrovic, D. V., & Brown, J. (2009). Poker mania and problem gambling: A study of distorted cognitions, motivation and alexithymia. Journal of Gambling Studies, 25(4), 489–502.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moodie, C. (2008). Student gambling, erroneous cognitions, and awareness of treatment in Scotland. Journal of Gambling Issues, 21, 30–55.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moore, S. M., & Ohtsuka, K. (1999). The prediction of gambling behaviour and problem gambling from attitudes and perceived norms. Social Behaviour and Personality, 27, 455–466.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Myrseth, H., Brunborg, G. S., & Eidem, M. (2010). Differences in cognitive distortions between pathological and non-pathological gamblers with preferences for chance or skill games. Journal of Gambling Studies, 26(4), 561–569.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Namrata, R., & Oei, T. P. S. (2009). Factors associated with the severity of gambling problems in community gambling treatment agency. International Journal of Mental Health Addiction, 7(1), 124–137.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oei, T. P., Lin, J., & Raylu, N. (2008). The relationship between gambling cognitions, psychological states, and gambling: A cross-cultural study of Chinese and Caucasians in Australia. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 39(2), 147–161. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022022107312587.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Osamika, B. E., & Mayungbo, O. (2016). Factor loading and item analysis of attitudes towards gambling scale. International Journal of Social Sciences and Management Research, 2(1), 77–94.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ovansa, J. U. (2017). Effect of socio-economic status on the academic performance of senior secondary school students (a case study of public senior secondary schools in Adavi L.G.A of Kogi State). International Journal of Education and Evaluation, 3(8), 7–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oyebisi, E. O., Alao, K. A., & Popoola, B. I. (2012). Gambling behaviour of university students in south western Nigeria-academic. Ife Psychologia, 20, 66–72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Podsakoff, P. M., MacKenzie, S. B., Lee, J. Y., & Podsakoff, N. P. (2003). Common method biases in behavioral research: A critical review of the literature and recommended remedies. Journal of Applied Psychology, 88(5), 879–903. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.88.5.879.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Porchet, R. I., Boekhoudt, L., Studer, B., Gandamaneni, P. K., Rani, N., & Binnamangala, S. (2013). Opioidergic and dopaminergic manipulation of gambling tendencies: A preliminary study in male recreational gamblers. Frontiers in Behavioural Neuroscience, 15, 11–19. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnbeh.2013.00138.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Preacher, K. J., & Hayes, A. F. (2004). SPSS and SAS procedures for estimating indirect effects in simple mediation models. Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, and Computers, 36(4), 717–731. https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03206553.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Raylu, N., & Oei, T. P. S. (2004). The Gambling Related Cognitions Scale (GRCS): Development, confirmatory factor validation and psychometric properties. Addiction, 99(6), 757–769.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, P. (1998). The cognitive psychology of lottery gambling: A theoretical review. Journal of Gambling Studies, 14, 11–134.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharma, S., Aitken, M. R. F., & Clark, L. (2015). Dual effects of losses disguised as wins and near-misses in a slot machine game. International Gambling Studies, 15, 212–223.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sundali, J. A., Safford, A. H., & Croson, R. (2012). The impact of near-miss events on betting behaviour: An examination of casino rapid roulette play. Judgment and Decision Making, 7(6), 768–778.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tang, C., & Oei, T. (2011). Gambling cognition and subjective welling as mediators between perceived stress and problem gambling: A cross-cultural study on White and Chinese problem gamblers. Psychology of Addictive Behaviours. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0024013.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tang, S. K., & Wu, M. S. (2007). Gender differences in characteristics of Chinese treatment-seeking problem gambler. Journal of Gambling Studies, 23, 145–156.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, R. N., Parker, J. D., Keefer, K. V., Kloosterman, P. H., & Summerfeldt, L. J. (2014). Are gambling related cognitions in adolescence multidimensional? Factor structure of the gambling related cognitions scale. Journal of Gambling Studies, 30, 453–465. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-013-9368-7.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Toneatto, T. (1999). Cognitive psychopathology of problem gambling. Substance Use and Misuse, 34, 1593–1604. https://doi.org/10.3109/10826089909039417.

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Toneatto, T., Blitz-Miller, T., Calderwood, K., Dragonetti, R., & Tsaons, A. (1997). Cognitive distortions in heavy gambling. Journal of Gambling Studies, 13, 253–266.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Tsitsika, A., Critselis, E., Janikian, M., Kormas, G., & Kafetzis, D. A. (2011). Association between internet gambling and problematic Internet use among adolescents. Journal of Gambling Studies, 27(3), 389–400. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-010-9223-z.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Umeh, A. (2019). Nigerian National League lose title sponsors as new season draws become inconclusive. Lagos: Busy Buddies Nigeria.

    Google Scholar 

  • West, R. F., Toplak, M. E., & Stanovich, K. E. (2008). Heuristics and biases as measures of critical thinking: Associations with cognitive ability and thinking dispositions. Journal of Educational Psychology, 100, 930–941. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0012842.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wiebe, J., Cox, B., & Falkowski-Ham, A. (2003). Psychological and social factors associated with problem gambling in Ontario: A one year follow-up study. http://www.responsiblegambling.org/articles/. Accessed 17 January 2019.

  • Winters, K. C., Stinchfield, R. D., & Fulkerson, J. (1993). Toward the development of an adolescent problem severity scale. Journal of Gambling Studies, 9, 63–84.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu, Y., van Dijk, E., & Clark, L. (2015). Near-wins and near-losses in gambling: A behavioral and facial EMG study. Psychophysiology, 52(3), 359–366. https://doi.org/10.1111/psyp.12336.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, Q., & Covey, J. (2014). Past and future implications of near-misses and their emotional consequences. Experimental Psychology, 61, 118–126. https://doi.org/10.1027/1618-3169/a000231.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Zlatevska, L., & Kale, S. (2011). Teenage poker players: An analysis of impulsivity, gambling-related cognitions, and comorbidity. Asia-Pacific Advances in Consumer Research, 9, 39–47.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

We did not receive any grant from any governmental or non-governmental agencies and institutions.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

Conceptualization: (LOA and LOA); Methodology: LOA, LOA and AAA); Formal analysis and investigation: (AAA, LOA, CNE and MCO); Writing-original draft preparation: (LOA); Writing—review and editing: (LOA, AAA, MCO and CNE).

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Larry O. Awo.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Amazue, L.O., Awo, L.O., Agbo, A.A. et al. Association of Near-Miss with Two Erroneous Gambling Cognitions and Betting Intention: Evidence from Nigerian Adolescents. J Gambl Stud 37, 837–852 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-020-09994-7

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-020-09994-7

Keywords

Navigation