Abstract
Using unemployment rates as the sole labor market explanatory variable, most previous studies have concluded that employment conditions do not systematically influence teen birth rates. By contrast, this study found that birth rates were positively correlated with male employment rates (20–24 years old) and negatively correlated with the real minimum wage. Teen birth rates were also positively correlated with teen gonorrhea infection rates; and for the older teens (18–19 years old), by a measure of illegal drug use. By contrast, alcohol use was negatively correlated with teen birth rates. Finally, teen female employment rates were positively correlated with teen birth rates in weak labor market areas, suggesting that better job opportunities might increase teen birth rates among disadvantaged youth. Given the persistence of young adult birth rates among disadvantaged youth, policy recommendations to eliminate the marriage penalty they face are offered.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
We calculated the correlation coefficients between the three measures of labor market conditions across 33 states. The correlation coefficients range from 0.44 to 0.55 in absolute values. We further estimated the variance inflation factor (VIF) from the regression of the teen birth rates on the three measures of labor market conditions, and obtained the mean VIF = 1.89 for 33 states, and the mean VIF = 2.17 for 26 states. Therefore, both confirmed the small chance of multicollinearity problems among the three measures of labor market conditions.
We also tested to see if the unemployment rate—teen birth rate relationship was nonlinear. However, the unemployment rate squared term was not significant in any of the specifications so we did not include it in our model.
SAMSHA also reports alcohol binge rates. We found, however, that the alcohol use rate was a more accurate predictor so we used it rather than the binge rate.
State-level measures of access to abortion clinics were available for only 4 years of the 10 years in our study. Since there was little year-to-year variation in this measure, when we tested those years, there was no statistically significant link to the state level variations in teen pregnancy rates.
Fixed effects and random effects models are the two popular methodologies to conduct panel data analysis in the literature. We ran a Hausman test which confirmed that fixed effects model is preferred in our study.
Levine (2000) had the same problem. Due to missing data, he was only able to include individuals from 28 states in his study and only had complete data for all four years for 11 states. It was also a problem for Kearney and Levine (2012b, Table 3) when they wanted to test the link between sexual behavior and teen birth rates where they only had 167 observations over the 17 year period 1991–2008; or about ten states per year.
In a subsequent revision made in December 2013, Kearney and Levine (2012c) found a statistically significant inverse relationship between unemployment and teen birth rates.
References
Abma, J., Driscoll, A., & Moore, K. (1998). Young women’s degree of control over first intercourse. Family Planning Perspectives, 30, 12–18. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2991518.
Barone, C., Ickovics, J., Ayers, T., Katz, S., Voyce, C., & Weissberg, R. (1996). High-risk sexual behavior among young urban students. Family Planning Perspectives, 28, 69–74. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2136127.
Bauermeister, J., Zimmerman, M., Xue, Y., Gee, G., & Caldwell, C. (2009). Working, sex partner age differences, and sexual behavior among African American youth. Archives of Sexual Behavior, 38, 802–813. doi:10.1007/s10508-008-9376-3.
Bickel, R., Weaver, S., Williams, T., & Lange, L. (1977). Opportunity, community, and teen pregnancy in an Appalachian state. Journal of Educational Research, 90, 175–181. http://www.jstor.org/stable/27542088.
Biven, J., Fieldhouse, A., Pollack, E., & Thiess, R. (2012). Investing in America’s economy: A budget blueprint for economic recovery. Retrieved from Economic Policy Institute website: http://www.epi.org/publication/investing-america-economy-budget-blueprint/.
Browning, C. R., & Burrington, L. A. (2006). Racial differences in sexual and fertility attitudes in an urban setting. Journal of Marriage and Family, 68, 236–251. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3737.2006.00244.x.
Casad, B., Marcus-Newhall, A., Nakawaki, B., Kasabian, A., & LeMaster, J. (2012). Younger age at first childbirth predicts mothers’ lower economic and psychological well-being later in life. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 33, 421–435. doi:10.1007/s10834-012-9289-0.
Cherry, R. (2012). The new mothers’ tax relief proposal. Tax Notes, 136(3), 294–298. http://userhome.brooklyn.cuny.edu/rcherry/documents/NewMothersTaxRelief.pdf.
Colen, C., Geronimus, A., & Phipps, M. (2006). Getting a piece of the pie: The economic boom of the 1990s and declining teen birth rates in the United States. Social Science and Medicine, 63, 1531–1545. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2006.04.006.
Darroch, J., Landry, D., & Oslak, S. (1999). Age differences between sexual partners in the United States. Family Planning Perspectives, 31, 160–167.
Dehejia, R., & Lleras-Muney, A. (2004). Booms, busts, and babies’ health. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119, 1091–1130. doi:10.1162/0033553041502216.
Edin, K., & Kefalas, M. (2005). Promises I can keep: Why poor women put motherhood before marriage. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
Fisher, H. (2011). Marriage penalties, marriage, and cohabitation. Working paper series in economics 2011–2012. University of Sydney. http://ses.library.usyd.edu.au/bitstream/2123/7884/1/ECON%202011-12.pdf.
Fomby, P., Mollborn, S., & Sennott, C. A. (2010). Race/ethnic differences in effects of family instability on adolescents’ risk behavior. Journal of Marriage and Family, 72, 234–253. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3737.2010.00696.x.
Frost, J. J., Lindberg, L. D., & Finer, L. B. (2012). Young adults’ contraceptive knowledge, norms and attitudes: Associations with risk of unintended pregnancy. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 44, 107–116. doi:10.1363/4410712.
Geronimus, A., & Korenman, S. (1992). The socioeconomic consequences of teen childbearing reconsidered. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 1187–1214. doi:10.2307/2118385.
Guttmacher Institute. (2010). U.S. teen pregnancies, births and abortions. Retrieved from Guttmacher Institute website http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/USTPtrends.pdf.
Hamilton, B., Martin, J., & Ventura, S. (2013). Births: Preliminary data for 2012 (NVSR 62-3). Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr62/nvsr62_03.pdf.
Harknett, B. (2008). Mate availability and unmarried parent relationships. Demography, 45, 555–571. doi:10.1353/dem.0.0012.
Hofferth, S. L., & Goldscheider, F. (2010). Family structure and the transition to early parenthood. Demography, 47, 415–437. doi:10.1353/dem.0.0102.
Hoffman, S., & Foster, E.M. (2000). AFDC benefits and non-marital births to young women. Journal of Human Resources, 35, 376–391. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/146330.
Hondroyiannis, G. (2010). Fertility determinants and economic uncertainty: An assessment using European panel data. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 31, 33–50. doi:10.1007/s10834-009-9178-3.
Institute for Research on Poverty. (2002). Expectations of marriage among unmarried couples: New evidence from fragile families Study (Focus 22). Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin, Madison. http://www.irp.wisc.edu/publications/focus/pdfs/foc222.pdf.
Karp, M.M., Calcagno, J.C., Hughes, K.L., Jeong, D.W., & Bailey, T. (2008). Dual enrollment students in Florida and New York City: Postsecondary outcomes (CCRC Brief No. 37). New York: Columbia University Teachers College. http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED500537.pdf.
Kearney, M.S., & Levine, P. (2012a). Why is the teen birth rate in the United States so high and why does it matter? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26, 141–166. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.2.141.
Kearney, M.S., & Levine, P. (2012b). Explaining recent trends in the U.S. teen birth rate. NBER working paper no. 17964. http://www.nber.org/papers/w17964.rev0.pdf.
Kearney, M.S., & Levine, P. (2012c). Explaining recent trends in the U.S. teen birth rate. NBER working paper no. 17964. http://www.nber.org/papers/w17964.pdf?new_window=1.
Kemple, J., & Willner, C. (2008). Career academies: Long-term impact on labor market outcomes, educational attainment, and transition to adulthood. http://www.mdrc.org/sites/default/files/full_50.pdf.
Koon-Magnin, S., Kreager, D. A., & Ruback, R. B. (2010). Partner age differences, educational contexts and adolescent female sexual activity. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 42, 206–213. doi:10.1363/4220610.
Ku, L., Sonenstein, F.L., & Pleck, J.H. (1993). Neighborhood, family, and work: Influences on the premarital behaviors of adolescent males. Social Forces, 72, 479–503. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2579858.
Levine, P. (2000). The sexual activity and birth control use of American teenagers. NBER working paper no. 7601. http://www.nber.org/papers/w7601.
Luker, K. (1997). Dubious conceptions: The politics of the teenage pregnancy crisis. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Marquardt, E., Blankenhorn, D., Lerman, R., Malone-Colon, L., & Wilcox, W.B. (2012). The president’s marriage agenda for the forgotten sixty percent. Charlottesville, VA: University of Virginia. http://nationalmarriageproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/SOOU2012.pdf.
Martin, J.A., Hamilton, B.E., Ventura, S.J., Menacker, F., & Park, M. (2002). Births: final data for 2000 (NVSR 50-5). Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr50/nvsr50_05.pdf.
Martin, J.A., Hamilton, B.E., Ventura, S.J., Osterman, M., Kirmeyer, S., Mathews, T.J., et al. (2011). Births: Final data for 2009 (NVSR 60–1). Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr60/nvsr60_01.pdf.
Matthews, T.J., Sutton, P.D., Hamilton, B.E., & Ventura, S.J. (2010). State disparities in teen birth rates (NCHS Data Brief 46). Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db46.pdf.
Mensch, B., & Kandel, D.B. (1992). Drug use as a risk factor for premarital teen pregnancy and abortion in a national sample of white women. Demography, 29, 409–429. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2061826.
Monahan, K. C., Lee, J. M., & Steinberg, L. D. (2011). Revisiting the negative impact of part-time work on adolescent adjustment: Distinguishing between selection and socialization using propensity score matching. Child Development, 82, 96–112. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8624.2010.01543.x.
Moore, M., & Chase-Lansdale, P. L. (2001). Sexual intercourse and pregnancy among African American girls in high-poverty neighborhoods: The role of family and perceived community environment. Journal of Marriage and Family, 63, 1146–1157. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3737.2001.01146.x.
Morrison, D.M., Gillmore, M.R., Hoppe, M.J., Gaylor, J., Leigh, B. C., & Rainey, D. (2003). Adolescent drinking and sex: findings from a daily diary study. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 35, 162–168. http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/journals/3516203.html. 19 June 2013.
Newman, K. (1999). No shame in my game: The working poor in the inner city. New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation.
Pesa, J. A., & Mathews, J. (2000). The relationship between barriers to birth control use and actual birth control use among Mexican–American adolescents. Adolescence, 35, 695–707.
Pew Research Center’s Religion and Public Life Project. (2008). U.S. religious landscape survey: Religious affiliation. Washington, DC: Pew Research Center. http://www.pewforum.org/2008/02/01/u-s-religious-landscape-survey-religious-affiliation/.
Rauscher, E. (2011). Producing adulthood: Adolescent employment, fertility, and the life course. Social Science Research, 40, 552–571. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2010.09.002.
Regnerus, M. D. (2007). Forbidden fruit: Sex and religion in the lives of American teenagers. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
Rich, L., & Kim, S. B. (2002). Employment and the sexual reproductive behavior of female adolescents. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 34, 127–134. http://www.guttmacher.org/pubs/journals/3412702.pdf.
Rocca, C., Harper, C., & Raine-Bennett, T. (2013). Young women’s perceptions of the benefits of childbearing: Associations with contraceptive use and pregnancy. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 45, 23–32. doi:10.1363/4502313.
Rosenbaum, J., Zenilman, J., Rose, E., Wingood, G., & DiClemente, R. (2012). Cash, cars, and condoms: Economic factors in disadvantaged adolescent women’s condom use. Journal of Adolescent Health, 51, 233–241. doi:10.1016/j.jadohealth.2011.12.012.
Rosenbaum, J., Zenilman, J., Rose, E., Wingood, G., & DiClemente, R. (2014). Do jobs work? Risk and protective behaviors associated with employment among disadvantaged female teens in urban Atlanta. Journal of Women, Politics and Policy, 35, 155–173. doi:10.1080/1554477X.2014.890836.
Rosenzweig, M. (1999). Welfare, marital prospects, and nonmarital childbearing. Journal of Political Economy, 107, S3–S32. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/250102.
Schoen, R., & Tufis, P. (2003). Precursors of nonmarital fertility in the United States. Journal of Marriage and Family, 65, 1030–1040. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3737.2003.01030.x.
Shipler, D. (2004). The working poor: Invisible in America. New York, NY: Knopf.
Shore, R. (2009). Kids count indicator brief: Reducing the teen birth rate. Baltimore, MD: The Annie E. Casey Foundation. 65, 1030–1040. http://www.aecf.org/KnowledgeCenter/Publications.aspx?pubguid={E0E22911-04C9-4C11-A0EB-79FD615297CA}.
Shreffler, K., & Johnson, D. (2012). Fertility intentions, career considerations and subsequent births: The moderating effects of women’s work hours. Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 33, 1–11. doi:10.1007/s10834-012-9331-2.
Silverman, J. G., McCauley, H. L., Decker, M. R., Miller, E., Reed, E., & Raj, A. (2011). Coercive forms of sexual risk and associated violence perpetrated by male partners of female adolescents. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health, 43, 60–65. doi:10.1363/4306011.
South, S. J., & Crowder, K. (2010). Neighborhood poverty and nonmarital fertility: Spatial and temporal dimensions. Journal of Marriage and Family, 72, 89–104. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3737.2009.00685.x.
Spitz, A.M., Ventura, S.J., Koonin, L.M., Strauss, L.T., Frye, A., & Heuser, R.L., et al. (1993). Surveillance for pregnancy and birth rates among teenagers (MMWP 42 SS-6). http://wonder.cdc.gov/wonder/prevguid/m0031562/m0031562.asp#Table_5.
Stock, J., Bell, M., Boyer, D., & Connell, F. (1997) Adolescent pregnancy and sexual risk-taking among sexually abused girls. Family Planning Perspectives, 29, 200–227. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2953395.
Strayhorn, J. M., & Strayhorn, J. C. (2009). Religiosity and teen birth rates in the United States. Reproductive Health, 6, 1–7. doi:10.1186/1742-4755-6-14.
Sum, A., & Khatiwada, I. (2010). Vanishing work among US teens.2000-10: What a difference a decade makes! Four million missing workers in June 2010. Center for Labor market studies, Northeastern University. http://iris.lib.neu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1028&context=clms_pub.
Upadhya, K., & Ellen, J. (2011). Social disadvantage as a risk for first pregnancy among adolescent females in the United States. Journal of Adolescent Health, 49, 538–541. doi:10.1016/j.jadohealth.2011.04.011.
Wilson, E. K., & Koo, H. P. (2006). The relationship context: Its effects on low-income women’s desire for a baby. Journal of Marriage and Family, 68, 1326–1340. doi:10.1111/j.1741-3737.2006.00331.x.
Young, T. M., Martin, S. S., Young, M. E., & Ting, L. (2001). Internal poverty and teen pregnancy. Adolescence, 36, 289–304.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Cherry, R., Wang, C. Labor Market Conditions and US Teen Birth Rates, 2001–2009. J Fam Econ Iss 36, 408–420 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10834-014-9402-7
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10834-014-9402-7