Abstract
This study comprises a historical review of liver transplants performed in Canada during 2000–2004, and sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of possible changes in the operation of the waitlists. In the first part, overall statistics are reported, and the notable impact that blood type plays in affecting waiting time is discussed. Waiting times and numbers of transplants are also reported by gender, age, and geographic region (waitlist), and statistical analyses of the patient placement and cadaveric donations processes are performed. These analyses establish that the service times of an appropriate queuing model are closely approximated by an exponential distribution. Consequently, the resulting distribution for the waiting time from placement until transplant is well described by a different exponential distribution. The GI/M/1 queuing model is then used to perform a number of sensitivity analyses. The sensitivity analyses attempt to quantify the impact of no change in policy via a lottery system, and likely increases in cadaveric and/or living donor sources that would be needed to bring stability to the system. The results can be used by relevant authorities, together with information on success rates for publicity campaigns and living donor matching campaigns, to assess where further efforts should be made to reduce waiting times.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
McAlister VC, Badovinac K, Fenton SS, Greig PD (2003) Transplantation in Canada: review of the last decade from the Canadian Organ Replacement Register. Clin Transpl 2003:101–108
CORR Report-Treatment of End-Stage Organ Failure in Canada, 2002/2003 Canadian Institute of Health Information, Toronto, Canada http://secure.cihi.ca/cihiweb/products/CORR_Annual_Report_0203_e.pdf
Wiesner R (2005) Evidence-based evolution of the MELD/PELD liver allocation policy. Liver Transpl 11(3):261–263
Howard D (2001) Dynamic analysis of liver allocation policies. Med Decis Mak 21(4):257–266
Abellan JJ, Armero C, Conesa D, Perez-Panades J, Martinez-Beneito MA, Zurriaga O, Garcia-Blasco MJ, Vanaclocha H (2006) Analysis of the renal transplant waiting list in the Pais, Valencia, Spain. Stat Med 25:345–358
Gross D, Harris CM (1998) Fundamentals of queueing theory, 3rd edn. Wiley, New York
Annas GJ (1985) The prostitute, the playboy, and the poet: rationing schemes for organ transplantation. Am J Public Health 75(2):187–189
“Types & Rh System”, Canadian Blood Services Website, accessed from http://www.bloodservices.ca/CentreApps/Internet/UW_V502_MainEngine.nsf/page/Blood%20Types%20and%20Rh%20System?OpenDocument
Schaubel DE, Dykstra DM, Murray S, Ashby VB, McCullough KP, Dickinson DM, Hulbert-Shearon TE, Webb RL, Wolfe RE (2005) Analytical approaches for transplant research, 2004. Am J Transplantation 5(Part 2):950–957
Davies R, Roderick P (1998) Planning resources for renal services throughout UK using simulation. Eur J Oper Res 105:285–295
Wang A, Stanford DA, McAlister VC (2007) Best-Case & Worst-Case Scenarios For Wait Times For Liver Transplantation In Canada. Poster Presentation, MITACS Health Care Operations Research Conference, Vancouver, B.C. August 16–17, 2007
Cipriano LE, Chesworth BM, Anderson CK, Zaric GS (2007) Predicting joint replacement waiting times. Health Care Manage Sci 10:195–215
Essex C, McKitrick R (2002) Taken by storm: the troubled science, policy and politics of global warming. Key Porter, Toronto
Erlang AK (1909) Sandsynlighedsberegning og telefonsamtaler. Nyt Tidsskr Math B 20:33–39
Stanford D, Fischer W (1991) Characterising interdeparture times for bursty input streams in the queue with pooled renewal arrivals. Stocha Models 7:311–320
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank Ms Lilyanna Trpeski (Canadian Organ Replacement Registry, Canadian Institute for Health Information) and Mr. Michael Bloch (London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario) for providing the data on which these analyses have been performed, and Ms. Azheng Wang, who ran the spreadsheets for the sensitivity analyses. This work was aided by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council through it Operating Grant and Undergraduate Student Research Award programs. We also wish to thank a referee for useful comments that we feel have improved the paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Stanford, D.A., Renouf, E.M. & McAlister, V.C. Waiting for liver transplantation in Canada: waitlist history 2000–2004 and sensitivity analysis for the future. Health Care Manage Sci 11, 184–195 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-008-9062-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-008-9062-y