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Reliability analysis approach for railway embankment slopes using response surface method based Monte Carlo simulation

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Abstract

The railway embankment slope is a complex open system including uncertainty of soil parameters. Considering the influencing factors with randomness, ambiguity and uncertainty, the reliability analysis of slope stability is often accompanied by an implicit state equation, subtle changes of the input variables may result in drastic changes to the slope stability. In this work, a coupled Markov chain model is used to describe the staggering occurrence of different geotechnical types. To further describe the inherent variability of soil parameters, a response surface method (RMS) based Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is conducted to perform the reliability analysis. One case study is carried out using borehole data collected from Masao District in Yunnan, China. The results indicate the proposed RMS-based MCS approach could be utilized as a practical and efficient tool for the slope reliability analysis to address the system reliability analysis for complex slopes.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 51878560.

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 51878560.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Civil Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 610031, China

    Dehui Kong, Qiang Luo, Wensheng Zhang, Liangwei Jiang & Liang Zhang

  2. MOE Key Laboratory of High Speed Railway Engineering, Chengdu, 610031, China

    Dehui Kong, Qiang Luo, Wensheng Zhang, Liangwei Jiang & Liang Zhang

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  1. Dehui Kong
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  2. Qiang Luo
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  3. Wensheng Zhang
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  4. Liangwei Jiang
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  5. Liang Zhang
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Correspondence to Dehui Kong.

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Kong, D., Luo, Q., Zhang, W. et al. Reliability analysis approach for railway embankment slopes using response surface method based Monte Carlo simulation. Geotech Geol Eng 40, 4529–4538 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-022-02168-9

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