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Assessing the Effectiveness of TRIGRS for Predicting Unstable Areas in a Tropical Mountain Basin (Colombian Andes)

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Abstract

Some physically based landslide models analyse pore water pressure changes due to rainfall infiltration and its effects on slope stability. The physically-based model TRIGRS has been successfully used in rainfall-induced shallow landslide assessments in different studies around the world; nevertheless, evaluating its performance in tropical mountain terrains, such as the Colombian Andes, is necessary. In this study, the TRIGRS model was applied to the La Arenosa basin (San Carlos, Colombia) and ROC (receiver operating characteristic) analysis was used to assess its effectiveness (performance) at predicting areas susceptible to shallow landslides in this tropical mountainous area. The results were compared with those obtained using the SHIA_Landslide (Simulación Hidrológica Abierta, or SHIA, in Spanish) and SHALSTAB models in the same case study. The three models performed well, especially TRIGRS and SHIA_Landslide. The predictive results using TRIGRS were thoroughly analysed, describing the effect of the slope angle and its relationship with the estimated soil depth on the variation of the pressure head and the factor of safety (FS) during the simulated rainfall event. The high dependence of FS on soil thickness demonstrated that defining this variable must be carefully accomplished. The results suggest that TRIGRS can be a valuable tool in tropical mountain terrains, such as the Colombian Andes basins, and it can be useful despite the lack of data and the high parameter uncertainty that is common in many study areas.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank to Landslide Scientific Assessment (LandScient), the University of Antioquia and the Infrastructure Investigation Group (GII) for providing support for conducting this research. In memory of Ing. Lucas Velásquez Zapata.

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This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

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  1. Landslide Scientific Assessment (LandScient), Medellín, Colombia

    Roberto J. Marin

  2. Facultad de Ingeniería, Escuela Ambiental, Grupo de Investigación en Infraestructura (GII), Universidad de Antioquia (UdeA), Calle 70 No. 52-21, Medellín, Colombia

    Roberto J. Marin & Edwin F. García

  3. Departamento de Geociencias y Medio Ambiente, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medellín, Carrera 80 No 65-223, Medellín, Colombia

    Edier Aristizábal

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Marin, R.J., García, E.F. & Aristizábal, E. Assessing the Effectiveness of TRIGRS for Predicting Unstable Areas in a Tropical Mountain Basin (Colombian Andes). Geotech Geol Eng 39, 2329–2346 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10706-020-01630-w

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