An improved fuzzy time series forecasting method using trapezoidal fuzzy numbers

Abstract

One of the major drawbacks of the existing fuzzy time series forecasting models is the fact that they only provide a single-point forecasted value just like the output of the traditional time series methods. Hence, they cannot provide a decision analyst more useful information. The aim of this present research is to design an improved fuzzy time series forecasting method in which the forecasted value will be a trapezoidal fuzzy number instead of a single-point value. Furthermore, the proposed method may also increase the forecasting accuracy. Two numerical data sets were used to illustrate the proposed method and compare the forecasting accuracy with three fuzzy time series methods. The results of the comparison indicate that the proposed method can generate forecasting values that are more accurate.