Abstract
In most more developed countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) is below 2.1 and net immigration is positive. This paper proposes and calculates for 22 populations for 2011–15 a ‘Current Migration Replacement TFR’ which in combination with the mortality and absolute net migration for that period generates a stationary population equal in size to the mid-period population. The results show the Current Migration Replacement TFR ranges widely from 0.60 for Singapore to 2.05 for Slovakia. That the Current Migration Replacement TFR is below the 2011–15 TFR in 14 of the 22 countries shows that, when considered in combination with current migration and mortality, in most of the countries the current ‘below 2.1’ TFR is coherent with population increase, not population decline, over the long run. For New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Sweden and the UK continued current fertility in combination with constant mortality and constant absolute net migration is coherent with more than doubling of the current population size. The value of this measure for illustrating the interconnected population size implications of sub-replacement fertility and immigration, for sub-categorisation of ‘post-transitional’ populations by population growth prospects, and for guiding population policy is discussed.
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Notes
P1 denotes the number of (first generation) immigrants, P2 the number of native-born of immigrant mother, P3 the number of native-born to a native-born mother and whose mother’s mother was an immigrant, and so on.
For simplicity differences in mortality by migrant generation are deliberately ignored.
The more general term Target Migration Replacement TFR is suggested for use in examples in which either the population size or the net migration level is not based on current levels.
Technically, for this to occur the cumulative numbers of female net migration survivors to the reproductive ages, weighted by age-specific fertility rates, must be positive. However, for all observed values of proportionate age-sex profile of net migration (\(m_{x,j} )\) in this paper, \(P_{2}\) would be positive for any positive total net migration (M).
Values of IeNM j, can exceed 1. For example, when net migration is positive at most younger ages (x) (which typically have higher values of \(e_{x,j} )\) and negative at older ages the values of \(m_{x,j,}\) can exceed 1 for the former and will be negative for the latter.
The values of this variable are also affected by probabilities of survival from age at migration to age at birth. However the effects of differences in these probabilities between populations are typically trivially small.
For New Zealand even small reductions in TFR substantially increase the denominator of the (1/(1-NRR)) term in Eq. (6).
If Netherlands is removed from the data the slope coefficient is − 1.9102.
Whilst for the countries considered in this paper 2.1 constitutes a reasonably accurate approximation for the TFR which corresponds to the conventional (with zero migration) replacement level, for some countries with high female child and young adult age mortality or sex ratios at birth which are highly skewed towards males values above 2.1 are applicable (Smallwood and Chamberlain 2005; Gietel-Basten and Sherbov 2019).
Similarly, the age-sex distribution of the TSP may be used to illustrate the limiting distribution for the projected age-sex distribution of the population.
Preference between these alternative formulations for emigration may consider the nature of exposure to risk, including the division of emigrants between former immigrants and the native-born (Ryder 1997).
For example, simulation for Australia replacing the 2011–15 total net migration with the levels for 2001–05 (of 120,000 per annum) and 2006–2010 (of 232,200 per annum) changes of TFRR to 1.43 and 0.84 respectively. Under both scenarios Australia’s fertility is still well above the with migration replacement level. However, for Germany substitution of the much lower total net migration for 2001–2005 (159,200) and 2006–2010 (44,400) in place of the 2011–15 level changes TFRR to 1.76 and 1.99 respectively. The categorization of fertility Germany’s TFR changes from above with migration replacement level to below with migration replacement level under either scenario.
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Appendix: Data Sources by Country
Appendix: Data Sources by Country
Country | Population | Fertility | Migration | Life tables |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Australia | ABS population clock Year: 2013 | ABS births Years: 2011–15 | ABS net overseas migration Years 2011–15 | ABS life tables Australia Year 2012–14 |
Austria Belgium Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Netherlands Norway, Slovakia, Sweden, Switzerland UK | Eurostat database Population on 1 January Years: 2013 and 2014 | Eurostat database Fertility rates by age Years: 2011–15 | Eurostat database Immigration by age group, sex and citizenship and emigration by age group, sex and citizenship Years: 2011–15 | Eurostat database ec.europa.eu/Eurostat Life table Year 2013 |
Canada | Statistics Canada population estimates Year 2013 | Statistics Canada Crude birth rate, age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rate (live births) Years 2011–15 | Statistics Canada Estimates of the components of international migration, by age and sex, annual Year 2011–15 | Statistics Canada Life tables, Canada, provinces and territories Year 2012–14 |
Hong Kong | Hong Kong census and statistics department population by sex Year 2013 | Hong Kong census and statistics department (2017) fertility trend in Hong Kong Year 2011–15 Sex ratio at birth from UNPD (2019) | Total from Hong Kong census and statistics department total population 1920 to 2017 Proportions by age and sex from Hong Kong Immigration department statistics for inmovers on one-way permits | Hong Kong census and statistics department. Hong Kong Life tables Year 2013 |
Japan | Statistics Bureau of Japan Population Estimates Year: 2013 | Statistics Bureau of Japan Live Births and Live Birth Rates by Age Group of Mother Years 2011–15 https://www.stat.go.jp/english/ Sex ratio at birth from UNPD (2019) | Statistics Bureau of Japan Net Migration of Japanese and Foreigners by Age and Sex Years 2010–11 to 2014–15 | Statistics Bureau of Japan Life Table Year: 2013 |
Korea | Statistics Korea Resident Population Years: 2011–15 | Statistics Korea Final Results of Births Statistics Years: 2011–15 SRB from UNPD (2019) | Statistics Korea Long-term International Migration by Sex and Age (Nationals and Foreigners) Years 2011–15 | Statistics Korea Life Tables for Korea Year 2013 |
New Zealand | Statistics New Zealand National Population Year 2013 | Statistics New Zealand Births and Deaths Years: 2011–15 | Statistics New Zealand Permanent and Long Term by Age, Sex and Region Years: 2011–15 | Statistics New Zealand Period: 2012–14 https://www.stats.govt.nz/ |
Singapore | Statistics Singapore. Singapore Residents by Age Group, Ethnic Group and Sex | Statistics Singapore Births and Fertility Rates: Annual Years 2011–15 Sex ratio at birth from UNPD (2019) | Total net migration from annual population change and natural increase. Proportions by age and sex based on average for other countries | Statistics Singapore Complete Life Tables for Singapore Resident Population Year: 2013 |
USA | United States Census Bureau Population Clock Year 2013 | CDC Births. National Vital Statistics Reports Years 2011–15 | Total net migration by sex from OECD.Stat database Years 2011–15 Distribution by age imputed using Census Bureau population estimates and CDC life tables | Arias et al. (2017) National Vital Statistics Reports 66(3) Year: 2013 |
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Parr, N. A New Measure of Fertility Replacement Level in the Presence of Positive Net Immigration. Eur J Population 37, 243–262 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-020-09566-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-020-09566-w