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The Impact of Macro- and Micro-Economic Uncertainty on Family Formation in The Netherlands

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Abstract

In this paper, we study the impact of macro- and micro-economic uncertainty on family formation between 1970 and 2000 in The Netherlands. Using data of the Family Survey Dutch Population, we analysed the monthly hazard rates of experiencing the transition into first union, first marriage and parenthood after the start of the relationship of 365 male and 364 female partners by applying piecewise-constant exponential models. The results show that macro-economic uncertainties, i.e. high unemployment rates, lead to postponement of the first union and marriage, but not of the first child. In addition, we found that this relationship is not interpreted by individual-level employment insecurity, i.e. temporary employment or unemployment, which does not seem to prevent people from making long-term family commitments. Although hypothesized, we did not find that the negative effects of macro- and micro-level insecurities on family formation reinforce each other or that they vary between individuals with different educational qualifications.

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Notes

  1. Although five waves of the FSDP are currently available, we could only use the 2000 wave, containing detailed information on the full employment history (including information on temporary employment) of individuals and their partners, which is lacking in the other waves.

  2. This method of data collection, however, could involve a problem of what is called ‘recall bias’. This implies that especially couples who began their relationship at the start of the investigated period (i.e. 1970s) have to report on employment, partnership and fertility histories of a long time ago, which might lead to unreliable information. We would like to emphasise, however, that these also concern important life events that most individuals might very well remember, even after many years. In addition, this only applies to the group of respondents, who have actually started their relationship such a long time ago and for the earliest years of their relationship. Moreover, we have no reason to assume that possible errors within this respect would be systematic errors, and therefore we do not expect that our findings are biased by this.

  3. The category ‘low education’ consists of people with BO and LBO; ‘intermediate education’ refers to people with MAVO, HAVO, VWO and MBO and ‘high education’ is composed of people with HBO, WO and WO+.

  4. The correlation between this individual-level variable and the yearly measured modernization rate is −0.090, which implies that these variables are not collinear.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology, Radboud University Nijmegen, P.O. Box 9104, 6500 HE, Nijmegen, The Netherlands

    Marloes de Lange, Maarten H. J. Wolbers, Maurice Gesthuizen & Wout C. Ultee

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  1. Marloes de Lange
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  2. Maarten H. J. Wolbers
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  3. Maurice Gesthuizen
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  4. Wout C. Ultee
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Correspondence to Marloes de Lange.

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de Lange, M., Wolbers, M.H.J., Gesthuizen, M. et al. The Impact of Macro- and Micro-Economic Uncertainty on Family Formation in The Netherlands. Eur J Population 30, 161–185 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-013-9306-5

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