Abstract
It is shown that the probabilistic theories of coherence proposed up to now produce a number of counter-intuitive results. The last section provides some reasons for believing that no probabilistic measure will ever be able to adequately capture coherence. First, there can be no function whose arguments are nothing but tuples of probabilities, and which assigns different values to pairs of propositions {A, B} and {A, C} if A implies both B and C, or their negations, and if P(B)=P(C). But such sets may indeed differ in their degree of coherence. Second, coherence is sensitive to explanatory relations between the propositions in question. Explanation, however, can hardly be captured solely in terms of probability.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
P. Achinstein (1983) The Nature of Explanation Oxford University Press New York and Oxford
K. Akiba (2000) ArticleTitle‘Shogenji’s Probabilistic Measure of Coherence Is Incoherent’ Analysis 60 356–359 Occurrence Handle10.1111/1467-8284.00254
T. Bartelborth (1996) Begründungsstrategien. Ein Weg durch die analytische Erkenntnistheorie Akademie-Verlag Berlin
L. BonJour (1985) The Structure of Empirical Knowledge Harvard University Press Cambridge/Mass. and London
L. Bovens S. Hartmann (2003a) ArticleTitle‘Solving the Riddle of Coherence’ Mind 112 601–633 Occurrence Handle10.1093/mind/112.448.601
L. Bovens S. Hartmann ( 2003b) Bayesian Epistemology Oxford University Press New York and Oxford
Douven, I. and W. Meijs: 2006, ‘Measuring Coherence’, Synthese, to appear
E. Eells B. Fitelson (2002) ArticleTitle‘Symmetries and Asymmetries in Evidential Support’ Philosophical Studies 107 129–142 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1014712013453
B. Fitelson (1999) ArticleTitle‘The Plurality of Bayesian Measures of Confirmation and the Problem of Measure Sensitivity’ Philosophy of Science 66 IssueIDProceedings 362–378
Fitelson, B.: 2001, Studies in Bayesian Confirmation Theory, Ph.D. thesis, University of Wisconsin at Madison. Online: http://fitelson.org/thesis.pdf
B. Fitelson (2003) ArticleTitle‘A Probabilistic Theory of Coherence’ Analysis 63 194–199 Occurrence Handle10.1111/1467-8284.00420
Fitelson, B.: 2004, ‘Two Technical Corrections to My Coherence Measure’, http://fitelson.org/coherence2.pdf
Hempel, C. G.: 1965, ‘Aspects of Scientific Explanation’, in Aspects of Scientific Explanation and Other Essays in the Philosophy of Science, The Free Press, New York and London, 331–496
J. Kemeny P. Oppenheim (1952) ArticleTitle‘Degrees of Factual Support’ Philosophy of Science 19 307–324 Occurrence Handle10.1086/287214
H. E. Kyburg SuffixJr. (1983) ‘Recent Work in Inductive Logic’ T. Machan K. Lucey (Eds) Recent Work in Philosophy Rowman and Allanheld Totowa/NJ 87–150
Moretti, L. and K. Akiba: 2006, ‘Probabilistic Measures of Coherence and the Problem of Belief Individuation’, Synthese, to appear
C. I. Lewis (1946) An Analysis of Knowledge and Valuation Open Court Chicago
E. Olsson (2002) ArticleTitle‘What is the Problem of Coherence and Truth’ The Journal of Philosophy 94 246–272
W. C. Salmon (1970) ‘Statistical Explanation’ R. G. Colodny (Eds) The Nature and Function of Scientific Theories University of Pittsburgh Press Pittsburgh 173–231
T. Shogenji (1999) ArticleTitle‘Is Coherence Truth Conducive?’ Analysis 59 338–345 Occurrence Handle10.1111/1467-8284.00191
T. Shogenji (2001) ArticleTitle‘Reply to Akiba on the Probabilistic Measure of Coherence’ Analysis 61 147–150 Occurrence Handle10.1111/1467-8284.00286
M. Siebel (2004) ArticleTitle‘On Fitelson’s Measure of Coherence’ Analysis 64 189–190 Occurrence Handle10.1111/j.1467-8284.2004.00483.x
Siebel, M.: 2005, ‘Thagard’s Measure of Coherence: Corrected and Compared with Probabilistic Accounts’, submitted to synthese
Siebel, M. and W. Wolff: 2005, ‘Equivalent Testimonies as a Touchstone of Coherence Measures’, manuscript
P. Thagard (1992) Conceptual Revolutions Princeton University Press Princeton
P. Thagard K. Verbeurgt (1998) ArticleTitle‘Coherence as Constraint Satisfaction’ Cognitive Science 22 1–24 Occurrence Handle10.1016/S0364-0213(99)80033-0
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Siebel, M. Against Probabilistic Measures of Coherence. Erkenntnis 63, 335–360 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10670-005-4002-4
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10670-005-4002-4