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Spatial and temporal rainfall variability and its controlling factors under an arid climate condition: case of Gabes Catchment, Southern Tunisia

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Abstract

Precipitation is the principal component of the hydrologic cycle. This study examines the spatial and temporal rainfall variability in Gabes Catchment (southeastern Tunisia) by analyzing annual precipitation data in nine stations during the period extending from 1977 to 2015. Several multivariate statistical tools, essentially principal component analysis (PCA), hierarchical clustering analysis and multiple linear regression, are used to characterize spatial variability of rainfall and identify its major controlling factors. PCA resulted in four principal components explaining 70% of the total variance. Stations were clustered into three different groups based on topography, the proximity to the Mediterranean Sea, continentality and seasonality. Hierarchical clustering, applying Ward method, classified variables into two groups. A multiple regression model including 13 variables was developed, representing a suitable tool for predicting precipitation of the different stations spread throughout Gabes Catchment. The proposed model displays acceptable efficiency with an absolute prediction error of approximately 87%.

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Availability of data

The data used in this paper are provided by the Ministry of Agriculture of Tunisia Directorate General of Water Resources.

Abbreviations

HCA:

Hierarchical Clustering Analysis

P:

Annual rainfall

Paut:

Autumn rainfall

PC:

Principal component

PCA:

Principal component analysis

Pspr:

Spring rainfall

Psum:

Summer rainfall

Pwin:

Winter rainfall

Lat:

Latitude

Lon:

Longitude

Alt:

Altitude

dProx.Sea:

Distance to the Mediterranean Sea

P1, P2, P3, P4:

Classes of precipitation defined according to the number of rainy days of given rainfall depths

NjPtot:

Number of total rainy days

\({\Delta P}_{c}\) :

Rainfall variability for calibration model

MLR:

Multiple linear regressions

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Sciences of Sfax, Sokra Road, 3038, Sfax, Tunisia

    Sabrine Jemai

  2. Laboratory of Water, Energy and Environment, National School of Engineering, University of Sfax, 3038, Sfax, Tunisia

    Amjad Kallel

  3. High Institute of Water Sciences and Techniques of Gabes, 6072, Gabes, Tunisia

    Belgacem Agoubi

  4. Faculty of Sciences of Sfax, Road Sokra, 3038, Sfax, Tunisia

    Habib Abida

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  1. Sabrine Jemai
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  4. Habib Abida
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Correspondence to Sabrine Jemai.

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Jemai, S., Kallel, A., Agoubi, B. et al. Spatial and temporal rainfall variability and its controlling factors under an arid climate condition: case of Gabes Catchment, Southern Tunisia. Environ Dev Sustain 24, 5496–5513 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-021-01668-7

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