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Forest land conversion dynamics: a case of Pakistan

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Abstract

The present research focuses on estimating forest area change with respect to the ongoing forest land conversion. The study tests the hypothesis that forest land is being converted to the selected land use categories with high growth tendency and controlling deforestation rate to its half of the present level would significantly improve the land cover under forest. The rate of forest land conversion to other land use categories is analyzed and then compared with the total area expanded under three land use classes. We used Systems dynamic modeling approach to estimate forest area by simulating forest land conversion in Pakistan, projecting to 2030. The results show that rangeland, built-up area and cultivated land have increased over time; growth rate of built-up area (9%) is highest followed by rangeland area (1.7%) and cultivated area (0.3%), respectively; rangeland is the dominant category in terms of area expanded (0.74 m. ha). Sensitivity analysis showed that reducing deforestation rate to half of the past level of 1% could not significantly improve forest area; therefore, it is suggested that controlling deforestation alone is not an effective strategy unless drastic measures, e.g., demarcation of forest boundaries, land use control policy and afforestation campaign would be started in the country.

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Notes

  1. Total wood consumption is calculated by multiplying per capita wood consumption and population for the year 1992.

  2. For testing, however, the study also incorporated 60–90% control in deforestation after 2015 till 2030 from its 1990–2010 level (see Fig. 6).

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  1. Department of Economics, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan

    Naila Nazir

  2. Faculty of Business, Dubai Men’s College, Higher Colleges of Technology, Dubai, United Arab Emirates

    Salman Ahmad

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  1. Naila Nazir
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  2. Salman Ahmad
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Correspondence to Naila Nazir.

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Nazir, N., Ahmad, S. Forest land conversion dynamics: a case of Pakistan. Environ Dev Sustain 20, 389–405 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-016-9887-3

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