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Future trends in urbanization and coastal water pollution in the Bay of Bengal: the lived experience

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Abstract

The Bay of Bengal includes coastal seas of several countries, including Bangladesh, India, and Myanmar. We present scenarios for future river export of eutrophying nutrients into the Bay of Bengal, and the role of urbanization therein. We used NEWS (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model to analyze trends over the period 1970–2050. The scenarios are based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and indicate the number of people living in urban areas may increase from 22 % in 1970 to about 50 % in 2050. We show that this may considerably increase nutrient levels in rivers from sewage and other sources. For 2050, we calculate that harmful algal blooms may be a potential problem in coastal waters of about 95 % of the total drainage basin of the Bay of Bengal. In addition, we analyze Bangladeshi citizens’ expectations of future trends and how citizens with different worldviews would experience environmental changes (i.e., their lived experience). The citizens indicate that trends as envisaged in our scenarios may be a negative experience. However, some people may experience the trends as positive, because they expected worse.

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Notes

  1. Interviewees from “IUCN-Bangladesh,” “Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services,” “Institute of Water Modelling,” “Waste Concern Consultants,” “Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission,” “Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology,” and “Southeast University”.

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Acknowledgments

This study was performed as part of the EU project Lived Experience of Climate Change (LECHe) and funded through Netherlands organisation for international cooperation in higher education (NUFFIC). We are grateful to Catharien Terwisscha van Scheltinga and Maryna Strokal for advice and to the interviewees.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Naeema Jihan Zinia & Carolien Kroeze

  2. School of Science, Faculty of Management, Science and Technology, Open University of The Netherlands, P.O. Box 2960, 6401 DL, Heerlen, The Netherlands

    Carolien Kroeze

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  1. Naeema Jihan Zinia
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  2. Carolien Kroeze
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Correspondence to Carolien Kroeze.

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Zinia, N.J., Kroeze, C. Future trends in urbanization and coastal water pollution in the Bay of Bengal: the lived experience. Environ Dev Sustain 17, 531–546 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-014-9558-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-014-9558-1

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