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Regional Characteristics of Impact Factors for Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in China, 1997–2010: Evidence from Tests for Threshold Effects Based on the STIRPAT Model

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Abstract

This paper analyses the forces driving energy-related CO2 emissions based on a threshold STIRPAT dynamic model, using Chinese state-level panel data during the period of 1997 to 2010. In addition to investigating the impact of affluence on CO2 emissions, this paper studies channels through which affluence could impact on CO2 emissions across development levels and explores the possibility of reducing CO2 emissions through greater affluence by analysing panels including all regions, high-income regions and low-income regions. A threshold STIRPAT dynamic model further estimates thresholds for the major determinants of CO2 emissions: in the long run, affluence is the most important determinant followed by urban population. Variability of affluence impact on CO2 emissions in high-income regions is explained mostly by trade openness degree, while low-income regions with a higher industrial level are associated with lower CO2 emissions. Different measures should be adopted for CO2 reductions in different regions according to local conditions.

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Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 71373172) and the Independent Innovation Foundation of Tianjin University (grant no. 60304002). We especially thank the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are ours.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, People’s Republic of China

    Rong Yuan, Tao Zhao, Xianshuo Xu & Jidong Kang

Authors
  1. Rong Yuan
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  2. Tao Zhao
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  3. Xianshuo Xu
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  4. Jidong Kang
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rong Yuan.

Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 8, 9, 10 and 11.

Table 8 Descriptions of the main parameter variables in Eq. (4)
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Table 9 Descriptive statistics of the variables in Eq. (12)
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Table 10 CO2 emission intensity and its annual average and growth rate in China (ton per capita and percent, respectively)
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Table 11 Description of control variables used in Robustness analysis
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Yuan, R., Zhao, T., Xu, X. et al. Regional Characteristics of Impact Factors for Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in China, 1997–2010: Evidence from Tests for Threshold Effects Based on the STIRPAT Model. Environ Model Assess 20, 129–144 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-014-9424-4

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