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Methodology for Probabilistic Atmospheric Studies using Long-Term Dispersion Modelling

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Abstract

The main focus of this paper is the description of a methodology for probabilistic or long-term evaluation of the atmospheric transport and deposition of harmful (for example radioactive) releases from risk sites based on a dispersion modelling approach. This work was realised as a part of the multidisciplinary ‘Arctic Risk’ study; the purpose of which was the development of a methodology for environmental risk and vulnerability assessments and the testing of this methodology through estimation of the nuclear risk to the population in the Northern European countries in case of a severe accident at a nuclear risk site. The following research tools were applied for probabilistic atmospheric studies: (1) dispersion modelling – Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere and Danish Meteorological Institute HIgh Resolution Limited Area Model – for long-term simulation and case studies of radionuclide transport for hypothetical accidental releases at sites; (2) probability fields analysis – to construct annual, monthly and seasonal indicators based on dispersion modelling results to identify the most impacted geographical regions.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Leif Laursen (DMI), Ronny Bergman (Swedish Defence Research Authority), Boris Segerståhl (Thule Institute of University of Oulu, Finland), Olga Rigina (Danish Technical University), Sven Nielsen (Risø National Laboratory, Denmark) and Steen C. Hoe (Danish Emergency Management Agency) for collaboration, discussions and constructive comments. The authors are grateful to the HIRLAM group and to the Data Processing Department at DMI for the collaboration, computer assistance and advice. Financial support of this study included the grants of the NARP and Nordisk Forskerutdanningsakademi. Thanks to reviewers for constructive and useful comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Danish Meteorological Institute, DMI, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Alexander Baklanov, Jens Havskov Sørensen & Alexander Mahura

  2. Institute of the Northern Environmental Problems,INEP, Kola Science Centre, Apatity, 184200, Russia

    Alexander Mahura

  3. Ecole Centrale de Nantes, Nantes, 44321, France

    Alexander Mahura

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  1. Alexander Baklanov
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  2. Jens Havskov Sørensen
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  3. Alexander Mahura
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Correspondence to Alexander Baklanov.

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Baklanov, A., Sørensen, J.H. & Mahura, A. Methodology for Probabilistic Atmospheric Studies using Long-Term Dispersion Modelling. Environ Model Assess 13, 541–552 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-007-9124-4

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