Abstract
Vibrio parahaemolyticus (V.p) is a marine pathogenic bacterium that poses a high risk to human health and shellfish industry, yet an effective regional-scale nowcasting model for managing the risk remains lacking. This study presents the first regional-scale model for nowcasting the level of V.p in oysters in the marine environment by developing an ensemble modeling approach. The ensemble modeling approach involves the integration of genetic programming (GP) and deep artificial neural networks (DNN)-based modeling. The new approach was demonstrated by developing three GP-DNN ensemble models for predicting the V.p level in North Carolina, New Hampshire, and the combined region. Specifically, GP was employed to establish nonlinear functions between the V.p level and antecedent conditions of environmental variables. The nonlinear GP functions and current conditions of individual environmental variables were then utilized as inputs into a DNN model, forming a GP-DNN ensemble model. Modeling results indicated that the GP-DNN ensemble models were capable of predicting the V.p level with the correlation coefficient of 0.91, 0.90, and 0.80 for North Carolina, New Hampshire, and the combined region, respectively, demonstrating the impact of distinct environmental conditions in the local areas on accuracy of the combined regional-scale model. Sensitivity analysis results showed that sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity are the two most important environmental predictors for the abundance of V.p in oysters, followed by water level, pH, chlorophyll-a, and turbidity. The findings suggested that the GP-DNN ensemble models could be utilized as effective predictive tools for mitigating the V.p risk.
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All data used in this work are available from the literature.
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The codes used in this research are available from the authors upon request.
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Funding
This work was supported by the US NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration: award number 80NSSC20M0216) and the Louisiana Board of Regents (LEQSF(2020–23)-Phase3-14).
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PN performed data collection, model development and validation, first draft writing, and graph construction under the direction of ZD who designed the methodology, edited the current version of the manuscript, and applied for funding. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Namadi, P., Deng, Z. Deep learning-based ensemble modeling of Vibrio parahaemolyticus concentration in marine environment. Environ Monit Assess 195, 229 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10836-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10836-9